Starting from August 29th, BTC has been hovering around the STH-RP “short-term holder realized price” line for 7 days now. On the surface, it might look like the whales are deliberately pinning the price near the cost basis, waiting for retail to make a move. But in reality, it’s the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears at this sensitive level that’s causing the deadlock. You can see this reflected in the “Investor Trend Confidence Index” as well: 🚩 Green = bullish vibes; short-term holders are taking profits and feeling optimistic. 🚩 Yellow = indecision; market is uncertain, usually seen during consolidation or before a new trend kicks off. 🚩 Red = bearish sentiment; short-term holders are selling at a loss, signaling strong negativity. (See Chart 1) Basically, when the index shifts from green to yellow, it means investor confidence is starting to wobble—this is usually a sign the market’s “sensitive nerves” are being stretched to the max. If it slips further into the red, that’s a clear sign of panic and pessimism. And moving back from red to green isn’t something that happens overnight. That’s why we treat this Confidence Index as a macro trend indicator. Right now, after 7 days of chop around the STH-RP, the index has entered the yellow zone. Historically, when we first transition from green to yellow, a short-term bounce tends to follow. But if we go straight into the red, that means confidence is badly damaged and the major trend direction could be shifting. From there, the market will need either “time” or “price movement” to recover. 👇 👇 ‼️ Sharing for educational purposes only—NOT financial advice! ‼️ ------------------------------------------------- Sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh