Murphy

Murphy

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17年老韭菜；研究链上数据和宏观情绪相结合，构建自己的交易思维。保持谨慎乐观！| 近3亿用户的共同选择就在币安：https://t.co/5pQWuny9gU | #OKX web3入口一个就够 https://t.co/YwY7pIgKzB

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Signal Clone Analysis

If we consider the sideways downtrend in BTC since August 13 as a major trend correction, it seems like the adjustment isn’t “done” yet. So far, all the losses have been contributed by short-term holders (STH), while long-term holders (LTH) are still at 0% in terms of realized losses (see Chart 1). From this perspective, it doesn’t look like we’ve hit the panic phase typical of a real downtrend. twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

$113,500 couldn't be reclaimed, which is a bit concerning. Looks like short-term holders are eager to exit as soon as they break even... STH-RP is being tested again! There's only about $2,000 in between—not a huge gap. The support and resistance range is getting tighter and tighter, leaving little room to maneuver. If we can't break upwards, we'll have to look for a new bottom consensus below.

Good news: From 9/12 to 9/23, even though BTC price kept pulling back, new market demand has been ticking up. Before that, from 8/31 to 9/12, BTC price was rising but demand was actually dropping. This kind of backs up the core logic that “if BTC can’t break above 117, it’s just a weak rebound.” (Chart 1) twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

The battle between BTC’s key support and resistance levels: This round’s rally started from 108K, but BTC ultimately failed to break above $117,000. As we previously analyzed, whether BTC can hold above 117K will determine if this is a “strong rebound” or a “weak rebound.” The reason? This level aligns with the biggest cluster of chips in the entire structure—a major resistance point, packed with short-term bag holders. Whether BTC can break through and stabilize here is the best indicator of short-term market confidence.

In the cited article, we outlined three conditions for BTC to reach new highs: 1. BTC closes above $117,000; 2. STH-RPDZ diverges significantly (exceeding +1 std); 3. ETF net inflows and spot exposure increase simultaneously. (Figure 1) twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

I looked at the Federal Reserve's September economic forecast summary and roughly understood it using my elementary school level: GDP: The median growth rate over 25 years is 1.6%, and the long-term rate is 1.8%, indicating that the Fed expects US economic growth to remain moderate over the next few years. Unemployment rate: The median forecast over 25 years is 4.5%, gradually declining to 4.2% over 28 years, and hovering around 4.2% in the long term; it remains close to the long-term natural unemployment rate, reflecting the expectation of a "soft landing" for the economy.

The end of cryptocurrency speculation is metaphysics... 1. The "three lines converge" proves true again: Judging by the red line, the period from September 7th to September 9th saw an expected upward turn, and BTC subsequently rebounded. 2. Key resistance level: Based on current RP calculations, the orange dotted line corresponds to MVRV=2.42, approximately $129,000. This is the strongest resistance level under the pressure of a large-scale MVRV divergence. twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Including today, this is the fourth time (on a trading day) that BTC has challenged $117,000. The chip structure clearly shows that over 800,000 BTC are accumulating within the narrow range of $117,000-$118,000. $117,000 also marks the highest chip count of any single price, what we call the "strongest one." While challenging, it's not necessarily unwinnable. At the very least, the current repeated surges indicate that bullish sentiment is gathering. Personally, I'm keeping an eye on three data points right now: 1. Are ETF net inflows and spot exposure increasing simultaneously? This indicates genuine spot buying from traditional funds. See: x.com/Murphychen888/status/196...… 2. Is there a significant deviation in the STH Realized Profit Normalization Index (STH-RPDZ)? This indicates strengthening short-term momentum. See: x.com/Murphychen888/status/196...… 3. Can it break above 11.7w and not fall back below (based on the daily closing price)? This indicates minimal short-term selling pressure, which is positive for the market outlook. See: x.com/Murphychen888/status/196...… For each additional of these three conditions met, the probability of BTC returning to its previous high increases. 👇 👇 ‼ ️ My sharing is for educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. ‼ ️ ------------------------------------------------- This article is sponsored by #Bitget | @Bitget_zh twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Wow...AA @ayongaBTC you guys are really good at keeping this secret! A few days ago, we were still discussing how to feed Glassnode data into AI models and provide signals, but Binance didn’t mention it at all… So sad, I'm going to short it when it goes online🤣🤣🤣 Congratulations to @DeAgentAI for landing on Binance Alpha and contracts. It can be said that hard work has finally paid off. I hope they will continue to work hard to develop useful products. twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Quick ETH data update: 1. Based on the MVRV extreme deviation pricing range (see Chart 1), ETH's nearest resistance is at $4,750—the orange line. In April, June, and December 2024, ETH hit resistance at this range multiple times. From a "crypto voodoo" perspective, after the first breakout, the second or third attempt usually fails. This time is no different: ETH already broke through twice in August, but the third time it got rejected. Pretty wild...

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