Chip Distribution, Rotation Behavior, and My Expectations for 2026 (Long-Read)
If we take October 11th as the starting point of this cycle’s downturn, the BTC chip structure has changed dramatically over the past two months. Comparing the URPD data from 10/11 and 12/20, it’s easy to spot that the chips in the red shadow zones are decreasing, while there’s significant accumulation in the middle ranges (partly due to Coinbase wallet consolidation).
(Fig 1)
(Fig 2)
But this only gives a rough picture. For better clarity, I pulled the full URPD dataset, made a table with $10k increments, and calculated chip accumulation and distribution from 10/11 to 12/20. This helps us observe current price distribution and rotation behavior.
(Fig 3)
🚩 Key observations and summary from the table above:
1. The largest BTC stack is in the $80k–$90k range, totaling 2.536 million BTC, up 1.874 million since 10/11. This means the $80k–$90k range has been the strongest support since 10/11. Next is $90k–$100k (+324k BTC) and $100k–$110k (+87k BTC).
2. At the current BTC price, there are 6.168 million coins in loss above price, and 7.462 million in profit below. Excluding Satoshi’s and lost coins, BTC is almost at a chip structure equilibrium. If you see the two large ranges as a “dual-anchor structure,” BTC is close to the middle.
3. From 10/11–12/20, profit-taking chips below have dropped by 1.33 million, while loss chips above $110k have dropped by 902k. Notably, chips in the $100k–$110k range didn’t decrease, but increased by 87k. So, the top weak hands have mostly been shaken out in this drop—what’s left is mostly “diamond hands.”
4. The main contradiction now is heavy profit-taking. Whether it’s the 4-year cycle, macro uncertainty, quantum threats or other FUD, LTHs (long-term holders) are doing a massive distribution, with plenty of inventory left. The $60k–$70k range holds the most and is being dumped the hardest. These are largely chips accumulated pre-2024 US election, now rushing to cash out as profits shrink.
5. The $70k–$80k range is a “dead zone” with only 190k BTC. This means almost nobody is holding BTC at these prices. So if BTC dumps into this zone, it’ll likely attract huge liquidity and get support – that’s the logic behind the “dual-anchor structure,” validated many times before.
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🚩 2026 Outlook and Trading Thoughts
Looking at chip rotation and structure, the panic sellers at the top (cost basis above $110k) are basically exhausted. Unless price nukes further and shakes out another 1.87 million chips in the $80k–$90k range, the focus is now on how much profit-chasing supply below will sell.
Another angle: despite massive “old coin” profit-taking, BTC hasn’t crashed 50%+ like in previous cycles. This means the market has real absorption power. When price becomes attractive, demand steps in, and structurally, you see layer-by-layer defense.
So this looks more like a brutal “shakeout phase” (with future BTC dominance changing hands), not a full-blown cycle reset.
When BTC broke below the MVRV extreme deviation lower bound ($121k), I took profit on everything. Once the Investor Confidence Index hit the red zone ($102k), I started to DCA in, using a positive pyramid strategy—buying in the $90k–$98k and $80k–$89k zones, with the largest buy order at $80k (which missed by just $600 on 11/21). My average entry is just above $90k, with about 60% spot exposure.
On spot, I’m in a floating loss, but the drawdown isn’t severe. Also, in early November, seeing chip concentration too high, I hedged some risk with long volatility. Overall, still in profit.
My view: 2026 will bring a major inflection point, earlier than most expect. I don’t think Q4 2026 will be the cycle bottom—it’ll come sooner.
From the chip structure, $70k–$80k and $60k–$70k are both strong support zones. The former is the dual-anchor effect, the latter has 1.2 million chips stacked, even after a big distribution.
So, even if 2026 is bearish, I expect a bottom somewhere in these two ranges—more likely $70k–$80k than $60k–$70k. Some might think I’m too optimistic, and yeah—I’m always cautiously bullish.
But I’m not all-in on BTC hitting or breaking these levels—I’m just prepared. If price gets there, I buy as planned. If not, I wait for the right-side setup. Sure, there’s opportunity and time cost, but that’s not my main worry. I focus on probability (no one buys the absolute bottom or sells the top)—trading time for upside. I believe, once BTC hits $70k, lots of sidelined capital will ape in. If you believe next bull BTC hits $150k, buying here is a clear double.
$150,000—It’s not that far off. Whether you believe or not, I’m betting on the reversal.
If something unexpected blows up my risk exposure, I’ll hedge as needed. My confidence comes from healthy cashflow—not everyone can copy this, so DYOR.
All the data and logic behind “MVRV extreme deviation zone,” “Investor Confidence Index,” and “Chip Concentration” are explained in my past threads. I never delete any thread, even if I’m wrong. If you’re curious, go dig them up yourself—I’m too lazy to link.
Not many people read long threads in this market, but I wrote it anyway. I hope by the end of 2026, looking back at these thoughts and expectations will be fun—let’s see how much was right, how much was off.
Thanks for reading this far—wishing all of us good fortune in 2026!
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