Businesses are producing more orders with fewer people, but a month later, the same logic repeats itself: first, concerns about a recession, then a gradual return of confidence. The non-farm payroll report significantly missed expectations, prompting initial concerns about a recession, only to recover a few days later and realize the economy is actually fine. The logic from a month ago still applies. In addition to the logic from a month ago, two new logics emerged this week: 1. The manufacturing and service PMIs released this week were both strong, and more notably, the manufacturing and service order indices significantly exceeded expectations. x.com/qinbafrank/status/196378...…，下图上面是服务业下面是制造业，产业订单大超预期怎么看都不是衰退迹象。但是企业用人在减少，这怎么解释？只能说之前一直聊的x.com/qinbafrank/status/196357...…科技变革带来的劳动力市场结构性变化正在成为现实，生产率的提高，企业正在用更少的人完成更多的生产量。 This may be the norm in the AI-era economy, as labor productivity increases and companies become increasingly leaner in their hiring. 2. This week's ADP small non-farm payroll report also missed expectations, but there were 54,000 new jobs. Over the past year or so, if the ADP small non-farm payroll report has been higher than the large non-farm payroll report, the probability of an upward revision has been high.