qinbafrank

qinbafrank

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Investor in TMT、Crypto，$bitcoin $eth #AI ，跟踪最前沿科技趋势、野生宏观政经观察、研究全球资本流动性、周期趋势投资。记录个人学习和思考，经常出错常态掉坑爬坑。Runner🏃

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On the last day of the twelve-day product release live broadcast, openai released a big move, the finale "OpenAI o3". The ability of o3 is almost a direct dimensionality reduction attack on all current models. A few reviews I saw: 1. Figure 1 Software Engineering Test (SWE-Bench Verified), this is like a test for writing programs, for example, if you write a software, it must be fast, accurate, and not have bugs (small errors). This is an examination of o3 twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...

Tether announced a $775 million investment in Rumble (NASDAQ: RUM), a video sharing platform and cloud service provider. $RUM surged 50% after hours, it seems there is another crypto-related stock in the US stock market. This acquisition will provide financial support for Rumble and help its future growth plans, the transaction is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2025, said Rumble CEO Chris Pavlovski.

The PCE data that arrived last night pulled the market back again. As mentioned before, it really played the role of the non-manufacturing PMI data on August 5. The core logic is: Powell's hawkish remarks at the interest rate meeting scared the market. Everyone was worried that the interest rate cut would be suspended after this time, but Powell did not say it firmly. We still have to look at the data. Since the PCE in November was lower than expected, especially the core PCE was 0.1% lower than expected on a month-on-month basis, which was much lower than the previous value, the cooling trend continued. Then the market twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...

Regarding the US government shutdown: In fact, the US government has shut down more than a dozen times in the past 40 years (the attached picture shows the shutdown time periods during the terms of each president): Trump shut down twice during his first term, and Reagan had the most shutdowns during his term. Looking back at history, the US government shutdown has never been a major source of risk in the financial market. The transmission mechanism of the shutdown to the economy is temporary, and the market still has sufficient expectations for the impact of the shutdown. twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...

Share two interesting indicators: the US stock index has fallen slightly recently, but the CNN Fear and Greed Index has fallen to an extremely panic state of around 20. In the past two years, the CNN Fear and Greed Index has only reached this position three times: August 5 this year, mid-to-late October 2023 (when US10Y soared 5%), and Silicon Valley Bank's collapse in early March 2023. twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...

Tonight's PCE and core PCE data were lower than expected, especially the core PCE monthly rate of 0.1%, which was much lower than the previous value of 0.3%, which can partially dispel the market's concerns about the continued rebound in inflation. I remembered the ISM non-manufacturing data at 8:30 pm on August 5. At that time, the PMI data that was higher than the previous value and expectations pulled the market back that day. twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...

After November 2019, the market believed that the Fed would not cut interest rates in 2020, but then it cut them to zero in March; At the end of 2020, the view that the global V-shaped recovery would be sustained and that inflation would rise but be manageable forged the "inflation is temporary" narrative by Powell in Q1 2021; At the end of 2021, the high assessment of the Fed's rate hikes was severely inadequate, and it ultimately raised them at the fastest pace in decades.

21年底，市场认为22年加息3次，最后加了17次 22年底，市场认为23年加息1次，最后加了4次 23年底，市场认为24年降息6次，最后降了4次 24年底，市场认为25年降息1次，最后？我只知道市场的预期一定是错的，最后不是美联储开启加息周期，就是会降更多

The mighty one has been trapped, which is completely unexpected... <The mighty one refers to the top leader.>

The Bank of Japan just announced its interest rate decision, and as mentioned before, it will postpone the interest rate hike in December. This should ease short-term market sentiment twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...

The most bizarre thing about the market last night was that VIX surged to 27. Although Powell's hawkish speech was expected, it didn't seem to be such a big fluctuation. Can anyone tell me the logic behind VIX's abnormality?

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