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qinbafrank
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Investor in Crypto、TMT、AI ，跟踪最前沿科技趋势、野生宏观政经观察、研究全球资本流动性、周期趋势投资。记录个人学习和思考，经常出错常态掉坑爬坑。Runner🏃
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qinbafrank
Nvidia has acquired a potential competitor, announcing last night a $20 billion cash deal with AI chip startup Groq. However, the official statement clarified that it's not an acquisition of Groq as a company, but rather a technology license to integrate Groq's products into future offerings. Founded in 2016 by a group of former Google engineers, Groq is the core team behind TPUs and focuses on designing high-performance AI accelerator chips. Nvidia's move can be seen as following in Google's footsteps, accelerating its efforts in inference. Technologically, 1) this represents Nvidia shifting from a single GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) approach to a dual-track model of "GPU + LPU," moving from "general-purpose parallel computing" to "dedicated deterministic inference." 2) Particularly in the storage path, from HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) to SRAM, HBM, while offering large capacity, suffers from bandwidth limitations. Groq's LPU relies almost entirely on on-chip SRAM (Static Random Access Memory), with bandwidth reaching 80 TB/s (approximately 10 times that of HBM). There's a theory that the stronger the Groq narrative becomes, the weaker the storage narrative may become. This is something to watch for regarding the future trend of storage copyright. twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...
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qinbafrank
What does the VIX volatility index hitting a new low for the year mean? Last night, the S&P 500 volatility index fell to 13.4, the lowest level it reached since late November to mid-December 2024. What does this mean? 1. The VIX index is calculated based on S&P 500 option prices, reflecting the market's expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30 days (implied volatility). A higher VIX value indicates greater market volatility expectations and stronger investor panic; conversely, a lower VIX indicates a calmer market, stronger investor confidence, and lower risk aversion. Therefore, literally, a lower VIX means investors believe the likelihood of significant short-term stock market volatility is low, usually accompanied by a stock market rise or stability. 2. Furthermore, it reflects a decline in safe-haven demand. Currently, the demand for hedging (buying put options) in the US stock market has also weakened significantly. The underlying logic for this decline in safe-haven demand is that the Q3 GDP data released a few days ago greatly increased market expectations for a macroeconomic "soft landing," and there is a lack of significant negative catalysts in the short term. 3. Experts see that low implied volatility leads to low option premiums (especially call/put options), making options cheap. This is precisely the time for option traders to "position long calls" (buy call options) because of the low cost and high potential returns should volatility recover or the stock market accelerate. Implied volatility for large-cap tech options has also fallen to its lowest level in the past year. 4. The market is currently in an extremely relaxed state of "no hedging." This state can last for weeks or even longer; for example, the last time the VIX was at such a low level was from late November to mid-December 2024, lasting for three to four weeks. However, it's important to note that the VIX has a very strong mean-reverting characteristic. When the VIX remains below 14 for an extended period, the market's defense against negative news is extremely poor. An unexpected event can trigger a surge in hedging demand, leading to a market sell-off. This was also yesterday here x.com/qinbafrank/status/200366...…聊到的：从宏观角度看，美股圣诞行情其实可以持续到一月上旬到中旬，一月中宏观大事件又会多起来，届时可能波动又要来了。 twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...
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I agree with Brother Ni's summary of the reasons for the negative premium of USDT. The core of the negative premium lies in the following two points: First, in early December, thirteen ministries jointly issued a document further tightening regulations, which was discussed at the time as unfavorable to OTC and cryptocurrency traders. Second, the recent market downturn and the approaching year-end have led to a greater desire to cash out, naturally resulting in a negative premium. Another important driving factor for the recent appreciation of the RMB is the peak season for export companies to settle foreign exchange at the end of the year: The fourth quarter is a traditional seasonal peak for foreign exchange settlement. With strong exports in 2025 (USD-denominated exports increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first 10 months), coupled with expectations of a Fed rate cut causing dollar volatility, companies are more willing to settle foreign exchange at the current favorable exchange rate level to avoid potential future losses. Under these circumstances, export companies (especially those supported by a trade surplus) tend to settle foreign exchange as soon as possible to lock in profits. The settlement rate has risen from around 60% at the beginning of the year to around 70%. I checked the data: This year, banks' foreign exchange settlement and sales on behalf of clients gradually shifted from a deficit at the beginning of the year (such as approximately -$39.2 billion in January) to a surplus, which continued to expand, reaching a monthly surplus of $51.7 billion in September (a recent high). The cumulative surplus for the first 10 months further increased. This directly increased the demand for RMB in the foreign exchange market, pushing the exchange rate upward.
Phyrex
@Phyrex_Ni
聊聊 USDT 对人民币负溢价的原因 其实 USDT 对人民币溢价高于 USD 对人民币的溢价是有三个主要原因： x.com/_FORAB/status/…
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qinbafrank
Last night, the US reported a significant 4.3% increase in real GDP for the third quarter, the fastest growth in two years, primarily driven by strong household consumption. Core inflation remained high at 2.9% in the third quarter. Although the strong economy and resilient inflation are still dampening expectations for interest rate cuts next year, the fact that GDP growth outpaced inflation indicates healthy overall growth and increasing real purchasing power. For the market, the robust "hard data" paints a picture of strong economic resilience. Economic resilience boosted investor confidence in continued corporate earnings expansion, driving US stocks higher. However, there was also divergence: growth stocks and large-cap tech stocks benefited relatively, with gains in mega-cap tech stocks such as Nvidia, Broadcom, and Alphabet pushing the S&P 500 to a new high, while small-cap stocks, more sensitive to interest rate cuts, lagged significantly. (Previous | _2024111120230_) From a macro perspective, the Christmas rally in US stocks could actually continue into early to mid-January. However, more issues will arise in mid-January: the ongoing debate over subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs; December non-farm payrolls and CPI; Earnings season has begun. These will all have a significant impact on the market. As for BTC, as we discussed last Saturday, the US stock market has been performing smoothly this week, but BTC may be more challenging. After all, there is the largest options settlement in history on the 26th, and it is difficult to see a clear trend before then. twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...
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