qinbafrank

83,910 Twitter followers

Investor in Crypto、TMT、AI ，跟踪最前沿科技趋势、野生宏观政经观察、研究全球资本流动性、周期趋势投资。记录个人学习和思考，经常出错常态掉坑爬坑。Runner🏃

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Is Trump preparing a winning narrative? Last night, while signing an executive order at the White House, Trump told the media that the US might end its military action against Iran within two to three weeks. He said, "I think about two to three weeks. We'll leave because we have no reason to continue doing this." Trump claimed he had only one goal: Iran could not possess nuclear weapons, "and that goal has been achieved." The US military is completing its final tasks, "I think it could be done in two weeks, maybe a few more days." He also said that if an agreement is reached with Iran, the war might end sooner. But the US can end the war without an agreement with Iran, "If they're willing to sit down and talk, that's fine. But it doesn't matter whether they come or not." Earlier last night, he tweeted that he had destroyed Iran's military capabilities, completed the hardest part, and that opening the Strait of Hormuz should be left to other countries—the easiest task—using America's "glorious achievements" to force Iran to compromise and open the strait. Trump began boasting that he had destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities and that Iran could no longer build nuclear weapons. This narrative allows Trump to cultivate a winning narrative on the nuclear issue, similar to last year. On the two most crucial issues—the nuclear issue and the Taiwan Strait issue—Trump's statements in the past two days seem to be preparing to craft a narrative of an unimaginable, historic victory. Through this narrative, he aims to gradually transform a strategic setback into an unprecedented, decisive victory, bombarding voters with this message during the upcoming midterm elections. Most importantly, he has found a scapegoat, allowing him to attribute all the difficulties and mistakes encountered in the war entirely to his domestic and foreign enemies—betraying allies and traitorous Democrats—thus easily defusing any potential political challenges he may face. Bloomberg reports that sources familiar with Trump's thinking have revealed that Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with NATO members and other allies. As the war drags on, Trump believes that some partners have not done enough to push for a swift end. According to another source who requested anonymity, Trump realizes the current situation is unsustainable. Although yesterday's tweet discussed the significant risks and costs of Trump backing down, it also concluded by stating that "the cost of backing down is huge, although the cost of further escalation is no small matter." In this situation, Trump simply folding his hand and then verbally embellishing his achievements is a possible option. Of course, the final situation in the Strait of Hormuz after the US backs down is still uncertain. The Iranian president's statement early this morning was a response to Trump's statement. Of course, the power to decide the situation within Iran still rests with Mojtaba and Vahidi. However, we should also pay attention to Trump's preparation for a "winner's narrative." This morning at 9 AM, Trump will deliver a national address, providing an important update on the situation in Iran. We'll see how he responds. We should also observe Iran's responses over the next two days. If Trump backs down, Netanyahu will likely be the most anxious. Will he try to disrupt things? Because Netanyahu is probably the one who least wants to see US-Iran negotiations. twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...

qinbafrank

When a person is about to back down, their words soften. Powell's speech last night indicated that the Federal Reserve prefers to maintain interest rates and temporarily disregard the energy shock caused by the war with Iran. In fact, a change observed in the bond market last Friday was the increasing betting on a potential recession due to the Iranian situation and high oil prices. This change became even more pronounced after Powell's speech yesterday. In fact, Powell's remarks reflect his consistent stance over the past few years: refraining from making predictions or forecasts until significant changes in economic data are observed, maintaining a wait-and-see approach until clear trends emerge before making adjustments. As he warned last night, if rising prices alter public expectations of inflation over time, it may be impossible to remain indifferent.

Nick Timiraos

@NickTimiraos

Powell's big caveat on looking past the energy price shock: "You can have a series of these supply shocks and that can lead the public generally—businesses, price setters, households—to start expecting higher inflation over time. Why wouldn’t they?" The dilemma for the Fed: An

qinbafrank

Nasdaq has indeed changed its rules because of SpaceX; it's amazing how much the exchange is making way for it. Nasdaq has officially announced that it will modify its inclusion rules to allow large companies to be included in its main indices more quickly. New additions: 1) Added a "fast-track admission" feature. Large IPOs can join trading within approximately 15 trading days after listing (previously requiring a 3-month wait). 2) Removed 10% of floating capital. 3) Allowed the issuance of low-float shares (but with a weight cap). 4) Fully transitioned to quarterly, ranking-based rebalancing. 5) Market capitalization now includes both listed and unlisted stocks. These changes will take effect on May 1, 2026. This means that if SpaceX goes public, the company could be included in the Nasdaq 100 index within 15 days of listing, potentially triggering hundreds of billions of dollars in forced buying upon inclusion. Currently, SpaceX's IPO market capitalization is disclosed at $1.5 trillion, aiming to raise $75 billion. With only 5% of its shares in circulation in the six months following the IPO, does this mean there's still room for speculation? twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...