According to Glassnode data, as of the end of August, the "Illiquid Supply" of Bitcoin exceeded 14.3 million, breaking the historical record again, indicating that long-term investors' holding behavior is stable and their hoarding sentiment is strong, which constitutes the most solid support force in the market.
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"Illicit supply" refers to the number of Bitcoins that are rarely transferred or traded. There are currently approximately 19.9 million Bitcoins in circulation, which means that as much as 72% of the circulating chips are in a dormant state, firmly controlled by long-term holders and investors who store their assets in cold wallets. Even though the market has been turbulent recently, this steady accumulation trend has not stopped.
In mid-August this year, the price of Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $124,000, and then experienced a sharp correction of about 15%. The market was once in turmoil, but this group of "diamond hands" not only did not waver, but instead increased their investment against the trend. The illiquid supply of Bitcoin continued to rise, showing a firm attitude of "I will buy if you drop the price."
In the past 30 days alone, the net increase in the illiquid supply of Bitcoin has reached 20,000, highlighting investors' belief in the long-term value of Bitcoin and gradually tightening the market supply.
As circulating chips become increasingly scarce, any small spark of demand could ignite a prairie fire in the future. Once market pessimism dissipates and confidence returns, this compressed supply structure is likely to become the fuel that drives the next wave of growth.
Gold has broken through $3,400, a key resistance level that has held prices back for the past four months. This rally has occurred despite relatively modest monetary policy, and forward-thinking investors are investing in both gold and Bitcoin. While Bitcoin remains in consolidation mode, its long-term outlook remains firmly bullish.
Bitcoin's retracement from its all-time high of $123,640 has widened to over 13%. Historical retracement patterns and seasonal trends suggest the market is in the late stages of a correction. The current short-term holder realized price of $108,900 is becoming a key support level; a sustained period below this level could intensify downward pressure. Trading platform order flow indicators also suggest neutral spot market sentiment, reinforcing the view that buyers are holding off on a stronger catalyst.
Altcoin performed even more weakly, reflecting a broad risk-off sentiment. Ethereum (ETH) retreated 14% after briefly hitting a new all-time high. However, institutional demand remained resilient beneath the surface, with treasuries and corporate buyers continuing to increase their holdings. Mid-cap tokens such as CRO and PUMP outperformed amidst narrative-driven market activity, but this rotation was more at the expense of weaker assets rather than new inflows.
Today's panic index is 51, turning neutral.
The RSI index is currently at 48.34, indicating a neutral to weak trend. Although a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve is highly likely, September is traditionally a weak month for cryptocurrencies, and the market may face some downward pressure.
BTC's core range is 107,000-111,000. Short-term positions can be entered near support levels. ETH's core range is 4200-4400. Short-term options include buying low and selling high, and following the trend after a breakout. The market is currently range-bound, so focus on strong currencies like Sol and OKB, which have technical breakthrough potential, and XRP, which has concluded its SEC lawsuit. Those who prefer not to make moves should wait until key levels are reached before entering, especially after CPI figures are released.
