Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, said that based on comprehensive economic indicators, the current cryptocurrency bull market is still in its early stages .
In an analysis shared via the X platform on September 8, Bittel refuted the prevailing “peak of the cycle” sentiment in the cryptocurrency market and challenged the “late cycle” narrative by analyzing traditional economic indicators.
A typical late-cycle economy is typically characterized by extremely high manufacturing sentiment (ISM index around 60), high service sector sentiment, strong homebuilder confidence, sufficient consumer and worker confidence, bullish investor sentiment, and accelerating wage growth.
But Bittel noted that current data paints a different picture. Combining indicators from the ISM (Institute for Supply Management), NAHB (National Association of Home Builders), NFIB (National Federation of Independent Businesses), BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), AAII (American Association of Individual Investors), and The Conference Board into a comprehensive sentiment gauge, he found that U.S. economic sentiment remains "very moderate," far from the extreme optimism seen late in the cycle.
“Rather than being in a late-cycle economy that’s above trend, it’s more like an early-cycle economy that’s trying to gather momentum,” he said.
Central bank policy provides additional support for this view . Nearly 90% of central banks globally are implementing interest rate cuts, which Bittel said creates an “unconventional” environment and provides “a strong tailwind to the business cycle” in the long run.
The oil price trend further confirms the "early cycle" assessment: the current oil price is nearly 20% below the trend level and continues to fall. This means that the current financial environment is loose, rather than the tight conditions that are typically seen in the late cycle.
Historically, oil prices rising 50% above trend have often preceded a recession since the early 1970s.
Data for the Temporary Help Services industry showed "early cycle characteristics": growth in the industry gradually recovered from very low levels, indicating that the economy is in a recovery phase rather than a decline .
Bittel pointed out that the late stage of the cycle is usually characterized by "year-on-year growth turning from positive to slow," reflecting that the overheated economy is losing momentum.
He attributed the rise in unemployment to a lag in employment data, calling it "the last six months in the rearview mirror."
Before deciding to recruit "high-cost full-time employees with additional benefits and pensions," companies usually increase employees' overtime hours and hire temporary workers.
Bittel also defines the current economic environment as a "transition from early to mid-cycle," and describes this process as moving from "macro spring" (rising growth, falling inflation) to "macro summer" (rising growth, rising inflation).
He concluded that this macro perspective challenges the prevailing sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, which believes that the bull cycle has peaked. Instead, the current economic environment favors continued market expansion rather than contraction .
