The Altcoin Season Index has risen to 71, sparking optimism among analysts that the crypto market may be transitioning from Ethereum (ETH) season to a true altcoin season.
Going beyond the index, market Watcher also point to additional signals that suggest a broader altcoin rally may be approaching.
From ETH to Small Capital : Analysts Debate What's Next in Market Rotation
According to data from Blockchain Center, the Altcoin Season Index has surged from 59 yesterday to 71 at the time of writing. Typically, an index above 75 indicates the start of an altcoin season , where 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period .
Altcoin Season Index. Source: Blockchain CenterAlthough the index has not yet broken above that level, its rapid rise has caught the attention of traders.
“Altcoin season is in full swing, and it finally looks like a shift from ETH to all other coins is imminent,” one analyst posted .
Furthermore, Merlijn The Trader also highlighted another important sign. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), he pointed out that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), which tracks Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market Capital , has fallen below a key support level . Merlijn emphasized that this decline is happening quickly, rather than gradually.
“Every cycle, this marks the same outcome: Bitcoin cools down. Alts explode. The rotation is not imminent. It's already here. This is how altcoin seasons always start,” he added .
From a technical perspective, another analyst compared it to historical patterns. He pointed out that in 2017, altcoins broke out after a long period of accumulation, sparking one of the most dramatic bull runs in crypto history.
He also noted that the current structure is very similar to that period. The structure shows familiar signs: a Falling Wedge , a confirmed breakout, and an ongoing accumulation phase where investors are gradually positioning themselves. According to his analysis, these factors together suggest that the conditions for another significant altcoin rally may be ready.
Altcoins Performance in 2017 vs. 2025. Source: X/deg_apeMeanwhile, prominent investor Lark Davis highlighted the altcoin’s recent breakout, noting that they are breaking out of a triangle pattern in an upward direction.
“The accumulation since mid-August now looks ready to move higher. RSI is not overheated, and the timing is perfect for the rotation from BTC → ETH → alts,” Davis commented .
So all these signals point to a rotation of Capital into altcoins in September . But what happens next? According to Altcoin Vector, the market phase has shifted from Ethereum to lower-cap Capital , a move that, based on previous patterns, signals waning interest in the broader altcoin space. This shift usually heralds a return to Bitcoin.
“But this is not the whole picture. The phase could turn back to ETH once its accumulation is complete — compression is building, and ETH could be preparing for the next move,” Altcoin Vector asserted .
What's different in September's altcoin season?
Amid the altcoin fever, analysts note that the September rally has its own unique drivers. Simon Dedic, founder of Moonrock Capital, warns that alongside legitimate price increases, speculative Token with inflated valuations and questionable volumes are also surging.
“We are entering altcoin season, but the scams will be the biggest. Token like MYX or IP are clearly just well-executed low-float/high-FDV mining plays. And then there are coins like M or TDCCP that I have never even heard of before, but are trading at ridiculous valuations with a lot of volume, which is clearly fake,” he commented .
Dedic said the coming months could be lucrative, but also full of scams, so caution is needed.
Notably, market experts also emphasize that the environment in 2025 is unlike previous cycles. Gareth Soloway observes that today's 'altcoin bull market' has shifted from altcoins to small- Capital stocks.
“The formula for getting 1,000%+ daily returns is to buy an altcoin and claim it will be the reserve coin or lead the use case. First it was BMNR, yesterday it was OCTO, today it is CWD. It's crazy,” Soloway said .
Therefore, the rise in the Altcoin Season Index, the decline in BTCD , and the technical setups suggest that an altcoin bull run may be underway. But with the rise of speculation and scams, this unique cycle requires both optimism and caution.
