AVAX bounces 10% above $33 on Avalanche treasury initiative, strong on-chain momentum, and a rounding Dip technical pattern with targets of $55 short-term, $212 long-term.
Expanding institutional inflows (ETP/ETF), deep network fee reduction after Octane upgrade, strong TVL and stablecoin Capital growth are the main supports for AVAX, despite the correction of the crypto market.
- Avalanche Treasury Drives AVAX Demand, Triggering 10% Surge Amid Bear Market.
- TVL, stablecoin market Capital , and daily transactions are exploding, reflecting the expansion of DeFi on Avalanche.
- The rounding Dip pattern targets $55 (short term) and $212 (long term), but RSI is approaching overbought levels.
AVAX surges 10% above $33 in what context?
AVAX bucked the broader market downtrend by rallying 10% to above $33, 21.5% above its local Dip of $29, fueled by momentum from treasury initiatives and institutional investor interest.
This movement reflects renewed confidence in a layer-1 blockchain with significantly improved on-chain data, from cheaper fees to surging transactions.
The recovery is all the more remarkable as it comes amid high market risk, suggesting intentional buying rather than just a short-term technical “bounce.”
What Treasury Moves Are Supporting AVAX Price?
The Avalanche Foundation plans to raise $1 billion through two US treasury companies to buy millions of AVAX from reserves at a discount, creating long-term demand and liquidation for the market.
A structure led by Hivemind Capital, advised by Anthony Scaramucci, is targeting $500 million in a PIPE transaction in a Nasdaq-listed company. The plan was confirmed when AgriFORCE Growing Systems rebranded as AVAX One and announced plans to raise $550 million to build a treasury around AVAX.
The remaining structure is expected to be via a SPAC, with Dragonfly Capital also targeting $500 million. These two treasury firms will hold AVAX, reinforcing a sustainable buying power.
How is institutional Capital flowing into AVAX ?
Since February, institutional interest in AVAX has accelerated: Swedish asset manager Vitune launched an ETP for Finnish investors, VanEck filed for an Avalanche ETF in March, and Grayscale recently filed to convert the Avalanche Trust into an ETF.
This chain of events reinforced the wave of institutional products surrounding AVAX, supporting the price despite market headwinds.
As ETP/ETF vehicles expand, institutional and retail investor access to AVAX increases, thereby increasing liquidation and market depth.
“The next generation of the market will be Tokenize securities.”
– Larry Fink, CEO BlackRock, DealBook Summit 2022, The New York Times
What does Avalanche's on-chain activity reflect?
The April Octane upgrade reduced C-Chain fees by 98%, pushed Medium daily transactions to 1.4 million in Q2 (up 493% quarter-on-quarter), and active addresses increased 57% to 46,397, according to AVA Labs.
Avalanche led the growth in transactions in the last week of August, increasing more than 66%/week, reaching a historical peak of 2.22 million transactions on August 31. Although it decreased afterward, the number of daily transactions remained stable above 1.2 million, according to Nansen.
The sustained trading momentum shows that users are actually returning to the network, creating natural demand for AVAX (fees, Staking , DeFi liquidation ).
What does the increase in TVL and stablecoin Capital mean for AVAX?
Avalanche's TVL increased from $1 billion (April) to $2.23 billion on Tuesday, a 120% increase behind Octane, with AAVE contributing about $515 million, according to defillama.
Stablecoin Capital hit $2.16 billion on Tuesday, up 81% in 30 days, reflecting explosive DeFi liquidation and trading demand.
Higher TVL and stablecoin Capital typically improve order matching efficiency, reduce discounts, and promote liquidation rotation, which underpins a positive AVAX price trend.
What does AVAX 's rounding Dip pattern suggest?
AVAX 's daily chart formed a rounding Dip , suggesting a bullish reversal after a long accumulation period, with a short-term target of $55 and an extended target of $212 if the breakout is confirmed.
From a Dip of nearly $17 in July, the price formed a U-shaped Dip until September. Volume increased by more than 100% in the last 24 hours and increased by 17% from the Dip of $29 earlier in the week, showing that buyers are in control.
A daily close above $55 would confirm the pattern, opening up room for a move towards $212 as measured by the pattern geometry, representing a roughly 511% increase from current levels.
What resistance levels and risks to watch?
RSI is approaching the overbought zone, which has signaled a correction in previous cycles; so investors need to pay attention to the risk of short-term fluctuations.
In terms of price, AVAX needs to surpass $36 to increase the probability of conquering the psychological level of $40, before testing the $55 neckline of the rounding Dip pattern.
When the trend is strong, corrections to nearby support zones may occur before the trend continues, especially when the bullish momentum is ahead of on-chain data.
Summary table of key indicators
The figures below, compiled from AVA Labs, Nansen , and defillama, shed light on the Avalanche ecosystem’s expansion momentum in 2025.
| Index | Timeline | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| C-Chain Fee Reduction After Octane | April 2025 | -98% | AVA Labs |
| Medium transactions/day | Quarter 2/2025 | 1.4 million (+493% QoQ) | AVA Labs |
| Operating address | Quarter 2/2025 | 46,397 (+57% QoQ) | AVA Labs |
| Peak transaction/day | August 31, 2025 | 2.22 million | Nansen |
| Current transactions/day | Recently | >1.2 million | Nansen |
| TVL Avalanche | April → Tuesday | 1.00 → 2.23 billion USD | defillama |
| TVL AAVE on Avalanche | Tuesday | 515 million USD | defillama |
| Stablecoin Capital | Tuesday | 2.16 billion USD (+81%/30 days) | defillama |
What factors could sustain AVAX 's bullish momentum?
The supporting mix includes: long-term AVAX accumulation treasury, institutional investment products (ETP/ETF), low transaction fees, rich DeFi liquidation , and positive technical models.
If Capital into AVAX related funds increase over time, steady demand will support the mid-term trend. At the same time, sustained high trades/day and improved TVL/stablecoin are fundamental signals.
However, technical levels and the overall market risk cycle may still cause a temporary correction before the major trend is confirmed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is AVAX rising despite the market falling?
Avalanche's treasury initiative creates sustained buying momentum, coupled with on-chain expansion (trading, TVL, stablecoins) and increased institutional interest (ETP/ETF), supporting outstanding price support.
What is the current technical price target for AVAX ?
The rounding Dip pattern implies a short-term target of $55. If the daily close exceeds $55, the extended target is $212 as measured by the pattern.
What are the key technical milestones to watch?
$36 (near resistance), $40 (psychological), $55 (pattern neckline). Sequential crossing of these levels will strengthen the confirmation of the uptrend.
What do rising stablecoin TVL and market Capital mean?
They reflect higher network liquidation and usage, improve transaction efficiency, and are the foundation for sustainable price momentum.
What is the main risk for AVAX right now?
RSI approaching overbought is likely to lead to a short-term correction, in addition to macro risks and fluctuations in cash flow into ETP/ETF vehicles.
