Ethereum (ETH) is rapidly being withdrawn from exchanges, threatening a supply crisis. Ethereum recently surged 3% in a single day, surpassing $4,400 (approximately 61.16 million won). Having ended September on a bullish note, October is also starting on an optimistic note. Experts predict that if this trend intensifies, it could lead to an unprecedented surge in supply.
According to on-chain analyst Alphractal, Ethereum is flowing out of exchanges at an unprecedented rate. The "Exchange Flux Balance," which represents the net operating balance of an exchange, has turned negative for the first time ever, indicating that withdrawals are exceeding inflows. While exchanges previously accumulated massive amounts of ETH, demand now exceeds supply, making it difficult to keep up. This shift is interpreted as a sign of a simultaneous surge in demand from both institutions and individuals.
A reduction in Ethereum's available supply will inevitably intensify upward price pressure. Specifically, as the volume available for trading on exchanges decreases, the overall market is likely to react more strongly. If this trend continues, some predict that ETH prices could enter a historic upward trend.
From a technical perspective, ETH recently recovered and surpassed the key support level of $4,250 (approximately 59.08 million won). The next resistance levels are $4,500 (approximately 62.55 million won) and $4,750 (approximately 66.13 million won), and a break above these levels would bring a new all-time high within reach. However, market analyst Ted Pillows noted that if ETH falls below $4,250, a correction could reach $4,000 (approximately 55.6 million won).
Market expectations are also rising. Cryptocurrency analyst Michaรซl van de Poppe said, "ETH is likely to see a strong rebound after Bitcoin (BTC)'s minor correction," and assessed that Ethereum has the potential to lead the overall cryptocurrency market bull market. Another analyst, EtherNasyonaL, suggested that Ethereum may have entered the "parabolic rally phase," the final stage of the three-stage cycle seen in previous bull cycles. He analyzed that ETH bounced near the same support level as the previous two times, and if this pattern reappears, the price could rise sharply.
The current sharp decline in ETH supply on exchanges can be seen as a market signal that long-term holding is stronger than speculation for short-term profits. Beyond mere price fluctuations, this trend has the potential to create a positive cyclical effect across the entire Ethereum ecosystem. Experts emphasize that the current shift in supply and demand could be a decisive turning point in Ethereum's mid- to long-term price dynamics.
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