By Crypto Banter
In this conversation between the world's top cryptocurrency thought leaders, industry giants, and seasoned traders, the core issues of the current market were dissected. Are we at the end of another four-year cycle, or heading into an unprecedented, sustained upward trend driven by limitless liquidity? From the macroeconomic liquidity floodgates to the fierce competition in micro-sectors; from the grand narrative of on-chain real-world assets (RWAs) to the awakening of Bitcoin's Layer 2 ecosystem; from the "zero-fee" involution of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) to the quiet rise of privacy technology. This article brings together insightful comments from industry leaders such as Arthur Hayes, Tom Lee, and Charles Hoskinson, as well as leaders of cutting-edge projects such as Zk Sync, Drift, and Trezor, aiming to present a panoramic view of the future market trends, key opportunities, and potential risks.
1. Is this the end of the market cycle, or are we heading towards a continued upward cycle?
Arthur Hayes: I think we need to talk about liquidity and money printing. If anyone thinks the money supply growth curve will suddenly flatten or turn negative in the next two weeks, that could be the end of the four-cycle cycle. But I don't think so. The cycle will continue until liquidity dries up. Looking back at the past three major four-cycle cycles: the Fed's taper tantrum in 2013, the repo crisis in 2017, and the rapid rate hikes caused by the non-transitory nature of inflation in 2021/2022, these were all moments when the Fed tightened liquidity. And now, Fed official Moran has mentioned the need for printing money to maintain moderate interest rates as part of his third mandate. Trump is trying to control the money supply by replacing Fed officials who disagree with money printing, and Treasury Secretary Besson has also mentioned the need to print money to support the banking sector and military operations. I just talked on stage about the possibility of France leaving the eurozone and the ECB printing trillions of dollars to prevent it. The Bank of Japan is still printing money, and China is also launching a real estate bailout program. Tell me, where is there no liquidity? I'm super bullish, and the next three years will be even more crazy!
Hunter: Whether the four-cycle cycle will continue, or whether we'll enter a bear market next year, really asks: What major event could trigger a market reversal into a bear market? I believe the crypto industry has matured significantly, and some of the major risks of the past have diminished. Regulatory scrutiny has made us stronger. Tether won't fail, and centralized exchanges (CEXs) won't collapse easily. Therefore, I believe the market is relatively safe, but I still worry about black swan events. However, they are unlikely to occur within the next two weeks. I believe investors must always be aware of risks.
Alex Sync: I can't predict prices, but based on my eight years of experience in crypto, I know the market will continue to grow until everything of value is on-chain. This trend is already underway, even without regulatory support. The regulatory tailwinds in the US and globally will accelerate this process. I predict continued growth in adoption.
Host: My objective view is that the market cycle is far from over. Anyway, as I always say, my friends, happy trading!
2. How will the market perform in the fourth quarter?
Tom Lee: I think the crypto market will perform well in the fourth quarter, but the stock market will do just as well.
Trader 1: Hoping for a full-scale rally in October, with Bitcoin hitting $150,000! Let's see what happens next.
Trader 2: The fourth quarter is historically the most bullish period for cryptocurrencies. We're pretty much following the historical cycle, just not as much growth as before. I recommend selling before Christmas and buying in mid-December, as the market may peak before Christmas. If there's a final surge, it's likely in January, but to be safe, I'm selling out in mid-December.
Alex Sync: Real-world assets (RWAs) will be a hot topic in Q4 and into 2026. ZK Sync's TVL in RWAs has reached $2.3 billion, second only to Ethereum. With the integration of enterprise and institutional chains, adoption will further increase.
3. Will there be a bear market in 2026?
Tom Lee: A lot of people are talking about a Crypto Winter. If that's widely expected, then the likelihood of it happening is actually lower. If it does happen, all you need to do is avoid using leverage. Thank you for your time!
Hunter: Whether the four-cycle cycle will continue, or whether we'll enter a bear market next year, is really asking: What major event could trigger a market reversal into a bear market? I believe the crypto industry has matured significantly, and some of the major risks of the past have diminished. Regulatory scrutiny has made us stronger. Tether won't fail, and centralized exchanges (CEXs) won't collapse easily. So I think the market is relatively safe, but I still worry about black swan events. However, they're unlikely to occur within the next two weeks. I believe investors always need to be aware of risks.
4. If I hold millions of dollars worth of Solana, ETH, TON, or BNB, should I manage it myself or convert it to D-Shares?
Host: Here's the million-dollar question: If you held a million dollars worth of Solana, ETH, TON, or BNB, would you hold and manage it yourself, or sell it and exchange it for an equivalent amount of D-Shares (digital asset shares)? We interviewed Tom Lee live, but didn't directly answer this question. We explored the advantages of DATs (digital asset management companies) as an alternative investment method.
Hunter: DATs are a hot topic this year. They offer an equity-based investment channel, suitable for investors who prefer an equity structure. For example, a sovereign wealth fund might take six to twelve months to directly purchase Bitcoin, but they can indirectly gain Bitcoin exposure by purchasing MicroStrategy shares. ETFs provide exposure to digital commodities. Both DATs and ETFs have their own advantages, and together they offer investors more options.
5. What is the future of stablecoins? Will Tether continue to lead?
Paolo: Absolutely! Tether invented stablecoin technology, and after 11 years of development, the US finally passed the Genius Act, which we helped draft. I'm incredibly proud and excited about this. Our competitors are making the same mistake: they focus solely on scaling. Tether's success is because we serve the 3 billion underserved users that traditional banks overlook. Institutions like JPMorgan have powerful distribution networks, but they can't meet the needs of these users. That's what makes Tether unique.
Arthur Hayes: I think the stablecoin market will grow from the current $300 billion to trillions of dollars. Tether will continue to dominate the market, but Ethena is expected to become the second largest stablecoin. They are ready to buy back tokens, and the protocol has $500 million in cash available for this purpose.
6. Is institutionalization a good thing for the crypto industry?
Hunter: 2025 is an exciting year! While sentiment on crypto Twitter may be mixed, our traditional finance clients saw their largest inflows ever in Q3. DATs offer equity-style investment, while ETFs provide exposure to digital commodities, and together they provide investors with more access points. For example, a sovereign wealth fund indirectly invested in Bitcoin by purchasing MicroStrategy shares.
Alex: We successfully listed on Nasdaq in May under the ticker symbol GLXY, a significant milestone. We shut down our Bitcoin mining operations and transitioned fully to AI computing. Galaxy is now a dual-core crypto and AI company, a leader in institutional-grade crypto, and aspires to become a leading provider of AI hyperscale data centers. Regulatory changes will benefit platforms like Ethereum and Solana, driving the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) and the development of decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
Moderator: To summarize, the long-held concerns about regulation may actually be beneficial to the industry. This begs the question: Is institutionalization really a good thing?
7. Will decentralized asset managers (DATs) end market cycles or continue them?
Host: As thousands of people were still queuing to enter, I took the stage to give a speech about DATs, exploring whether they would end the market cycle or propel it forward. We need to put on suits and become asset managers, even "super asset managers," otherwise the market will always underestimate the value of our assets. This is the market's greatest opportunity!
ETHBet Co-CEO: Treasury firms have two key roles: first, they convince investors of the long-term value of the Ethereum ecosystem, as exemplified by the explosive growth of stablecoins, tokenized funds, and DeFi; second, they offer a superior investment approach compared to ETFs. ETH is a productive asset with yield, but ETFs cannot fully collateralize ETH because they need to provide daily liquidity. Treasury firms can leverage ETH's volatility and staking returns through unsecured convertible bonds, creating a superior investment vehicle. ETH's 40% volatility is attractive to convertible bond investors, and the staking income can cover the debt service of the low-interest bonds.
Hunter: DATs are a hot topic this year. They offer an equity-based investment channel, suitable for investors who prefer an equity structure. For example, while a sovereign wealth fund might take six to twelve months to directly purchase Bitcoin, they can indirectly gain Bitcoin exposure by purchasing MicroStrategy shares. ETFs provide exposure to digital commodities. Both DATs and ETFs have their own advantages, and together they offer investors more options. Furthermore, DATs can become superusers of the Ethereum or Solana ecosystem, driving its development.
8. What is the competitive landscape for perpetual contract DEXs? Will the trend toward zero fees affect their value?
Arthur Hayes: I call it the "Chinese version of perpetual swaps." Hyperliquid's business model is very successful and highly profitable. But now competitors are attracting traders with zero fees and token economies, such as Aevo, which is issuing new tokens and waiving trading fees. This will lead to near-free trading fees, and in the future, perps trading may become free. Value will shift to other activities, such as Ethena's stablecoin narrative and EthiFi's staking and lending business.
Cindy: Drift is more than just a perpetual contract DEX. We offer a complete system for lending, spot trading, margin trading, and treasury. We are the largest treasury product on Solana and the second-largest by TVL at $1.6 billion. We are also about to launch an income product. We are well-prepared for the zero-fee trend. Robinhood already has zero fees. Our multi-business model means we are not reliant on a single revenue stream, so zero fees are not a problem for us.
9. Is Drift undervalued?
Cindy: Drift's fully diluted valuation is $850 million, with a market cap of $312 million, compared to Hyperliquid's $45 billion. I think the market simply hasn't caught up yet. We've built a high-performance on-chain system, with record-breaking trading volume and open interest, and annualized revenue exceeding $100 million. The market will eventually revalue Drift, especially after the November upgrade. I can't predict the exact timing, but the market will catch up.
Host: I've always said that Drift is the most undervalued DEX on the market, with a valuation that's probably 40x undervalued. The market will eventually catch up to its value.
10. What are the unique advantages of privacy DEX (such as Privix)?
Shakov: Privix is based on Coti's privacy chain and uses Goblet Circuits technology for on-chain encryption. When users trade, the price and purchase details are invisible to everyone, preventing front-running or leveraged liquidation. This is the only technology on the market that can achieve this, as Coti's privacy chain is much faster and more scalable than other platforms, and it outperforms ZK technology. ZK computations are typically performed on sidechains or off-chain, while ours is fully on-chain and supports multi-party computation. ZK cannot build AMMs (automated market makers). Privix is already live, with AI features launching this week, and privacy mode will be enabled within two to three weeks. Users can enter safe mode with the click of a button. Participants will also have the opportunity to receive airdrops, and tokens are expected to be launched in October.
11. What is the future of private payments and tokens?
Shakov: We're enabling users to create private tokens or stablecoins on Coti, and will soon integrate with MetaMask to enable private sending, receiving, and viewing. Privacy is becoming a hot topic, with Cardano's Midnight and Zama projects driving this trend. The Midnight airdrop will attract significant attention, and privacy will be a key narrative. Time is running out before you can participate in the airdrop!
12. Why is Cardano overvalued? How can it catch up with the DeFi competition?
Charles Hoskinson: I don't understand why Luna is so highly valued; sometimes the market just doesn't work that way. Cardano's challenge lies in the fact that we've done a great job building a decentralized ecosystem and on-chain governance. We have 1.3 million staking wallets, a very strong community, and the most decentralized on-chain governance in the industry. However, we've stumbled in DeFi, with low stablecoin adoption and less than $1 billion in total value (TVL). People see poor DeFi data and assume Cardano is overvalued. But Bitcoin's DeFi data is also poor, yet it's a $2 trillion ecosystem. Market valuations are based on philosophy and community, not just TVL or stablecoins. We fixed the issues in Midnight and partnered with over 100 partners, including Brave, Blockchain.com, and Bitcoin.com, attracting 100 million users to the Cardano ecosystem. Bitcoin DeFi presents a huge opportunity. Both Cardano and Bitcoin use the UTXO model, and Cardano's smart contracts can be compiled and run on Bitcoin, enabling interoperability. We're also targeting XRP's DeFi, which has a market cap of nearly $100 billion but lacks a DeFi ecosystem. Combining RWA and emerging assets, we are on track to increase TVL to $10-15 billion. Hydra has achieved one million TPS, and we are accelerating the productization of scalability.
13. What is the significance of Bitcoin Layer 2 (such as Hemi)?
Jeff Garzik: Hemi is a Layer 2 blockchain that merges Bitcoin and Ethereum. It enables programmable Bitcoin through Bitcoin and Ethereum tunnels, expanding your Bitcoin to unlimited possibilities. Currently, innovation in the Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems is fragmented. Hemi integrates the best features of both to create a super network with all the functions of both. Key technologies include inheriting Bitcoin's security through the "Proof of Proof" protocol to obtain decentralized security and Bitcoin finality; and the Hemi Virtual Machine (HVM), an EVM with a built-in Bitcoin full node, which smart contracts can interact with directly. Users only need to deposit Bitcoin on the Hemi staking platform in just two steps to obtain a low-risk 1% basis point return or a high-risk 8-10% return (through mechanisms such as circular leverage).
Host: Wall Street has discovered Bitcoin and will soon realize that Bitcoin needs returns because it's the way Wall Street survives. The Bitcoin Layer 2 narrative is about to take off, but there aren't many credible players. Hemi may be leading the charge. I mentioned Hemi before, and investors have already made a lot of money. Keep an eye on Hemi; this wave may be coming soon!
14. What’s new in Trezor’s new hardware wallet?
Daria: We have a variety of designs, including limited editions, regular editions, and cold wallets. We recently launched a new design in collaboration with a winter brand. Trezor's major innovation is the introduction of three cards that store private keys instead of seed phrases. All three cards can access the same wallet, eliminating the hassle of storing seed phrases and the risk of leaks due to human error. Users can sign transactions by simply tapping the cards in the Trezor app. The cards have customizable access codes, allowing users to customize their security. The price is very affordable: a three-card set costs $69.99, or two cards costs $54, making it one of the most secure cold wallets available.
15. How does ZK Sync drive Ethereum scaling and RWA adoption?
Alex Sync: We just announced the addition of Sandbox's Sand Chain and the ADI Foundation's ADI Chain to the ZK Sync elastic network. ZK Sync's mission is to scale Ethereum in all its aspects, providing creators and developers with infrastructure that allows them to bypass the underlying technology. Reliable Tokens (RWAs) will be a hot topic in Q4 and 2026. Our RWA TVL has reached $2.3 billion, second only to Ethereum. Our Prevadium technology supports on-chain integration for enterprises and institutions. Privacy is key for compliant institutions on-chain, and no financial institution can fully replicate their processes without privacy.
Conclusion: Navigating the uncertainties of growth and the risks of uncertainty
Combining the views of various experts, a complex yet promising future slowly unfolds. On a macro level, the expansion of global liquidity seems to indicate that the crypto market cycle is far from over, and may even be entering an even more "frenzied" phase. Institutionalization and regulatory compliance are no longer distant visions, but rather a reality accelerating through DATs, ETFs, and enterprise-grade solutions like ZK Sync, which are injecting unprecedented capital and vitality into the market.
In specific sectors, we have seen drastic evolution: perpetual contract DEX is heading towards a zero-fee era, forcing project owners to build more diversified moats; RWA and Bitcoin Layer 2 are seen as the core engines of the next round of growth; and the long-neglected privacy sector is also about to usher in its own highlight moment with technological breakthroughs and growing market demand.
However, amidst the prevailing optimism, vigilance against "black swan" events and an emphasis on risk management remained constant throughout. Both established public chains and emerging DeFi protocols face challenges and opportunities in their respective fields. Ultimately, the market's value discovery mechanism will reward projects that truly build superior technology, maintain strong communities, and establish clear business models. As the host concluded, no matter how the cycle evolves, the most important thing for everyone involved is always: "Happy trading!"
Link to this article: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/10/6064.html
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyVZvRMPIYM
