XRP Whales Are Buying as Panic Eases – How Much Will Price Recover?

XRP price has seen one of its biggest drops of the year. It fell from $2.83 to as low as $1.77 in just a few hours before recovering to around $2.44.

Even after the recovery, the Token is still down about 14% in 24 hours and nearly 20% for the week. But the data shows that this was not a normal sell-off — it was a panic sell-off, driven by the Derivative market, not an actual Token Sale . And now that XRP is recovering, a key group is being seen adding to the Token holdings.

Panic leads to Derivative crash, not spot selling

on-chain data confirms that this is not a wave of investors dumping Token.

Over the past month, the supply of XRP on exchanges has remained virtually unchanged, even during this sharp drop, suggesting that very few coins are being sent to exchanges for sale.

Instead, the drop could start in the Derivative market, where excessive Longing positions are liquidated when prices break key support levels. When that happens, exchanges automatically close Futures Contract, triggering forced sales in the Order Book — even though no Token are moving on- chain.

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This Off-Chain panic is evident in Wyckoff Volume Analysis (VSA): a large red bar forms at the peak of the liquidation wave, followed by yellow bars as the selling subsides.

A move from red (full sell control) to yellow (weaker control) usually means forced liquidations are cooling down.

Wyckoff Volume Analysis (VSA) tracks how price and volume interact to show when buying or selling pressure is dominant. VSA doesn't know where that volume is coming from — it doesn't differentiate between spot selling and liquidations due to Derivative.

The last time XRP 's Wyckoff bars showed a similar transition from red to yellow in early May, the Token rallied more than 54% from its lows. If this pattern repeats, a similar move could occur once the panic subsides. And that puts an XRP price target of $2.74 in sight.

Whales accumulate as the market cools down

While retail traders were being squeezed out, whales were quietly buying in.

Data from Santiment shows that wallets holding more than 1 billion XRP increased their holdings from 23.98 billion to 25.02 billion after the crash — an increase of about 1.04 billion XRP, worth about $2.54 billion at current XRP prices .

That behavior fits the on-chain picture: there was no large increase in exchange balances, and the increase in whale holdings means this wasn't a spot sell — but a Derivative panic met with whale accumulation.

Note: A stable exchange supply also fits into the picture. Large holders typically buy through OTC trades or internal swaps. Therefore, their accumulation does not immediately appear as an on- chain outflow from exchanges.

Such setups often mark the Dip stage of a psychological crash, where strong hands absorb weak hands before the recovery begins.

XRP Price Aims for “This Recovery Target” as Recovery Momentum Gains

At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.44 , which is in line with the 0.5 Fibonacci level from the previous swing high to the $1.70 region, a new multi-week low.

If XRP can close the daily above $2.43, the structure will strengthen for a move towards $2.59. That could be followed by $2.82 (major resistance). This is in line with the Wyckoff forecast above $2.74, shown on the previous chart.

A drop in XRP below $2.28, however, would weaken the structure and open up the risk of a drop to $2.05.

With whales accumulating, exchange supply stabilizing, and panic liquidations easing, the data shows a clear shift in sentiment. This isn’t a true capitulation — it’s a sentiment-driven washout that may have laid the groundwork for XRP’s next short-term rally.