The US Senate has just passed an amendment to the GAIN Act in NDAA 2026, forcing AI/HPC chip makers to prioritize domestic customers before exporting and tightening licensing for “advanced integrated circuits”.
Although the GAIN Act has passed the Senate, it still needs to be approved by the House of Representatives and signed by the President. The new restrictions could further tighten the supply of hardware, putting pressure on the cryptocurrency mining industry , which relies on a global supply chain .
- The GAIN Act requires domestic order priority, allows Congress to deny export licenses for advanced AI chips, and requires licensing for products containing “advanced integrated circuits.”
- The bill has not yet taken effect; its provisions are subject to change through negotiations in the House of Representatives.
- Tariffs and export restrictions could raise hardware costs, extend delivery times, and erode the competitiveness of US Miners .
What is the GAIN Act?
The GAIN Act (Guaranteeing Access and Innovation for National Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026) is an amendment to the NDAA 2026 that targets the supply chain of AI chips and high-performance computers, requiring domestic customers to be prioritized before exports.
According to the US Congressional record, the GAIN Act passed in the Senate as an amendment to the NDAA 2026 to regulate access to advanced AI processors. The focus is on balancing national security, AI innovation, and supply capacity for the US market.
If enacted, it would be a new regulatory framework that would significantly impact chipmakers, AI infrastructure providers, and enterprise customers who need advanced computing hardware.
What does the GAIN Act say about order priority and export licenses?
AI/HPC chipmakers must prioritize fulfilling orders in the United States before exporting; any product containing “advanced integrated circuits” requires a license, and Congress can deny licenses for the most advanced AI chips.
The revised document highlights the obligation to prioritize serving domestic customers. In addition, the licensing scope is expanded to products with “advanced integrated circuits,” and congressional oversight mechanisms for licenses for advanced AI processors help tighten the flow of sensitive technology.
License applicants must demonstrate that they have fulfilled all orders in the United States prior to exporting, increasing compliance and inventory planning requirements.
“A license applicant must demonstrate that all U.S. orders have been satisfied before an export license is issued under the fiscal 2026 NDAA.”
– US Congress, NDAA fiscal year 2026 (bill), source: Congress.gov
Has the bill come into effect?
Not yet. The GAIN Act is an amendment to the 2026 NDAA, which needs to be passed by the House and signed by the President to become law. The provisions can also be changed during bicameral negotiations.
This situation means businesses should prepare for the scenario, but the terms cannot be considered certain. The mediation process between the two chambers could change the definition of “advanced integrated circuits,” the scope of applicable products, and the licensing process.
Since it has not yet come into effect, the timeline and detailed implementation guidelines are still open, but the risk of supply chain disruption is something to consider.
Why Export Restrictions Could Squeeze the Cryptocurrency Mining Industry
Cryptocurrency mining relies on specialized hardware and global supply. Restricting licenses for “advanced integrated circuits” and prioritizing domestic orders could extend delivery times, raise costs, and make it more difficult for miners both internationally and in the United States.
While Bitcoin is largely ASIC-based, the supply chain , logistics, and supporting components are still affected by technology policy. Any friction at the import-export stage increases the total cost of ownership, affecting Miners ’ Capital thin profit margins.
The US has previously updated its AI chip export controls to address security risks, a reflection of regulatory moves that signal a trend toward increased scrutiny of high-end computing hardware.
What do AI chip scarcity and order accumulation say?
US companies have faced a huge backlog when it comes to buying AI chips. Nvidia’s Blackwell line is booked for about 12 months by the end of 2024, according to Americans for Responsible Innovation.
The explosive demand for large-scale model training and industrial AI deployments has put a strain on supply capacity. In this context, the domestic order priority rule may partly alleviate the shortage in the US but increase the lead time in the non-US market.
As a result, global companies, including Miners requiring GPU/ASICs and supporting infrastructure, have had to adjust their ordering plans earlier and reserve larger working Capital .
How are tariffs and trade wars hitting the cryptocurrency mining industry?
Reciprocal tariffs announced in April sent cryptocurrency prices plunging and made operating conditions for the competitive Capital industry more difficult.
Mining hardware production depends on international supply chain , and tariffs will increase equipment prices, eroding Miners' profits. Increased cost pressures can also lengthen Capital cycles, slowing investment in capacity expansion.
CleanSpark faced $185 million in liability in July after CBP said some of the machines originated in China. IREN also faced a $100 million bill for higher tariffs on hardware, which had a direct impact on margins and cash flow.
Non-US equipment prices may be cheaper, putting US Miners at a disadvantage?
Yes. Tariffs could cause hardware prices to fall outside the US, while equipment imported into the US becomes more expensive, causing US mining pools to lose their cost advantage and eroding their share of global hashrate.
Hashrate is a measure of the computing power that secures the network. With higher Capital costs and a choked supply chain , expansion opportunities in the United States become less attractive than in regions with low electricity prices, low taxes, and cheaper equipment.
If the US hashrate declines, the goal of making the US the “cryptocurrency capital” will be challenged. Optimizing costs and ensuring hardware supply are key to maintaining competitiveness.
Who will be most affected by the GAIN Act and related measures?
AI/HPC chip manufacturers, cloud providers, data centers, crypto Miners and hardware importers will see a clear impact on delivery times, compliance and costs.
Manufacturers must establish procedures to prioritize domestic orders and increase compliance when applying for export licenses. Importers should factor in licensing time and customs costs.
Miners should reassess their profitability models under different hardware price and deployment time scenarios, and XEM moving capacity to less impacted regions where legal and feasible.
Comparative impact table on stakeholders
The table below summarizes typical impacts based on domestic order preference regulations, licensing requirements, and the current tariff environment.
| Object | Chain chain | Cost/Capex | Delivery time | Compete |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chip manufacturer | Increased licensing procedures | Increased compliance costs | Extended with export orders | Prioritize the US market |
| Miners in the United States | Importing is more difficult | Increase due to tax/license | Prone to delays | Decline if outside the US is cheaper |
| Miners outside the United States | Quota dependent | Could be cheaper | It may take longer. | Relative improvement |
What should businesses do to adapt?
Proactively assess compliance, diversify suppliers, order early, reserve inventory, and design flexible supply chain to reduce licensing and tariff risks.
Miners can negotiate flexible delivery terms, stagger equipment investments to reduce timing risk, and factor in tax/inspection costs in their financial models. Working early with customs brokers and trade advisors can shorten the licensing lifecycle.
For large projects, XEM long-term supply contracts with policy contingency provisions to stabilize prices and delivery times.
What's next from Congress and the markets?
The House will XEM the 2026 NDAA and amend the GAIN Act before sending it to the President. The provisions could change, particularly the definition of “advanced integrated circuits” and their scope.
Investors should monitor: the progress of negotiations, interim guidance, transition mechanisms, and licensing capacity. Any delays in licensing could impact data center and mining farm deployment plans.
In the short term, expect increased volatility in equipment prices and lead times, requiring tighter supply chain risk management.
References and related data
– US Congress: text of the NDAA/GAIN Act and related amendments: Congress.gov
– Americans for Responsible Innovation: Comments on the AI Chip Backlog and the GAIN Act.
– Hashrate Index: hashrate distribution by country and Bitcoin mining pool.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the GAIN Act require all AI products to obtain an export license?
The bill would require a license for products containing “advanced integrated circuits” and allow for de-licenses for advanced AI chips. The exact scope will depend on the final definition when the law is enacted.
Is the GAIN Act law yet, and when does it come into effect?
Not yet. The amendment must pass the House of Representatives and be signed by the President. Its effective date and implementation guidelines will be determined after the legislative process is complete.
How are Miners in the United States affected by costs?
Tariffs and licensing requirements can increase equipment prices, extend delivery times, and result in higher investment costs and Capital periods.
Who do the numbers $185 million and $100 million pertain to?
CleanSpark faces $185 million liability in July due to equipment origin issues; IREN faces a $100 million bill due to increased tariffs. This is an example of the cost risk from international trade.
Will US Hashrate Drop Immediately Once GAIN Act Passes?
Not necessarily. The impact depends on tax rates, licensing times, electricity prices, and the ability of mining companies to secure hardware supplies.
