Markets are entering what traders are calling a “super week” for macro data. After last weekend’s market crash, the US dollar, US government bonds and crypto markets are preparing for highly volatile trading sessions as the Federal Reserve takes center stage again.
With five or six key events this week, each data point and Fed statement could send a sharp swing through risk assets. However, the US government shutdown remains a major concern.
Key US economic events to watch this week
Afterthe market turmoil of the past weekend, the crypto market is preparing for volatility triggers this week. The following US economic events could influence how Bitcoin and crypto prices move this week.
Fed speech
This week's schedule includes more than eight Fed speakers, including Governor Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, Stephen Miran , and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
In retrospect, Miran’s dovish tone last week boosted crypto market optimism, after the Fed governor signaled deeper rate cuts.
“I am more optimistic about inflation than many others,” Miran said , adding that population changes and slower growth could further reduce the real neutral rate, which he estimates is closer to 0.5%.
The focus, however, will be on Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the NABE annual meeting in Philadelphia, where he is expected to reiterate the Fed's risk-management stance , balancing a softening labor market with still-high inflation .
“We expect Powell to continue to focus on managing more downside risks to employment than prices,” MacroSpectrum commented .
Therefore, traders will be closely watching for any signs of an early rate cut, which could trigger fresh rallies in the crypto and gold markets while putting pressure on the USD.
The Fed's Beige Book
Another macro data point to watch is Wednesday's Beige Book report (2 PM ET), which could provide one of the few unfiltered looks at US economic conditions amidthe government shutdown .
Sentiment on X (Twitter) calls attention to this report for insights into regional consumer spending and labor conditions.
If the Beige Book reveals increased business caution or downward wage pressures, this could strengthen the case for the Fed to shift course sooner than expected.
Crypto markets, especially Bitcoin, tend to rally in such benign conditions, especially when real yields are flattening and liquidation expectations improve .
US Producer Price Index (PPI)
The PPI report remains a key indicator of inflation. It is scheduled for Thursday at 8:30 AM ET, although the government shutdown could delay it. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect a 0.3% month-over-month (MOM) gain after a -0.1% decline the previous month.
However, the shutdown could push the release to next week (October 23). Still, traders are pricing in a softer figure, suggesting that deflation could return.
A cooler PPI would bolster rate cut bets, weaken the US dollar and support risk assets from stocks to Ethereum .
Initial unemployment claims
Initial jobless claims, expected at 229,000 for the week ending October 11, could also be delayed. However, any unexpected increase in claims could confirm the slowdown story seen in private payrolls data .
Economists at MacroSpectrum warn that a delayed federal unemployment rate could push the October unemployment rate to 4.5%, potentially accelerating the Fed's easing cycle.
For crypto traders, that means liquidation winds will return faster than expected.
Between Powell's speech, the Beige Book, and pending inflation data, volatility is likely to dominate the sessions from 12–5 PM ET this week.
With Trump's new tariffs on China raising geopolitical tensions and the government shutdown clouding the data stream, it's been a week of macro turmoil, and the ripples may not have spared crypto.
