The Bitcoin (BTC) price slid below $105,000 on Friday, reviving memories of previous capitulation phases, where despondent traders marked the start of major reversals.
While bearish sentiment dominates headlines, several veteran analysts argue that October’s gloom could be setting the stage for another historic rebound.
October’s Downturn Spurs Accumulation—Echoes of Past Cycles
Some traders are drawing parallels between today’s market and late 2020, when Bitcoin traded around $12,000, far below its prior all-time high, before surging 170% in a single quarter.
“It felt dead. Everyone had moved to equities, SPACs, GME. Crypto was hopeless… and then the mother of all outperformances took place. None of this price action can psyop me,” one investor stated.
On-chain data supports that sentiment. Glassnode reports strong net accumulation among smaller Bitcoin holders (1–1,000 BTC) since early October, even as prices slid from $118,000 to $108,000.
The platform’s Trend Accumulation Score shows renewed conviction from retail and mid-sized wallets, while large holders have paused their distribution.
Meanwhile, Stockmoney Lizards notes that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score, a metric comparing market value to realized value, sits near 2.15, a zone historically associated with accumulation rather than euphoria.
“The pattern’s crystal clear…Below 2 means pain city for holders—smart money accumulates. We’re far from overheat, plenty of runway left,” they wrote.
Bitcoin MVRV Z Score. Source: Stockmoney Lizards on XAnalyst Axel Adler identifies $106,000–$107,000 as Bitcoin’s key support range, warning that losing this level could trigger a retest of $100,000, where the yearly moving average lies.
As long as this base holds, “the market structure remains bullish,” Adler says
Secular Shifts and Cyclical Exhaustion
Still, macro voices like CredibleCrypto caution against ignoring the bigger picture. He points out that Bitcoin’s entire 16-year history has overlapped with equities’ own 16-year bull cycle, both potentially nearing exhaustion.
“Crypto will be entering its first secular bear market at the same time traditional equities may face theirs,” they said, predicting “devastation across the board.”
That scenario contrasts sharply with the view of analyst Miles Deutscher, who maintains that Bitcoin’s digital gold narrative will eventually decouple it from risk assets.
AI Forecasts, Cycle Theories, and Market Psychology
Quant-based forecaster Timothy Peterson adds nuance to the debate. His AI model still gives Bitcoin a 75% chance of finishing October above $114,000, arguing that “even the bad scenario has 50% upside from here.”
Notably, with just about two weeks left to the end of October, Bitcoin was trading for $105,232, down by over 4% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoCycle analysts echo that optimism. Trader Cyclop calculates that Bitcoin’s prior bull markets each lasted roughly 1,064 days, placing the current cycle within 90 days of a potential peak in November or December 2025.
“We’re entering the bull market’s most dangerous yet rewarding stage,” he warned. “Winners average winners—losers average losers.”
Meanwhile, JDK Analysis dismisses bearish victory laps as premature, reminding followers that every prior bull cycle has lengthened over time.
Technicals Tighten With Bulls on Defense
Technically, Bitcoin now clings to its 200-day EMA, which investor Lark Davis calls the bull-bear line. A failure to hold could open the path toward $100,000 support, but a bounce from here might validate the accumulation thesis.
“Bitcoin clinging onto the 200 day EMA. This is the bull bear line. BULLS need to get their shit together and defend this line. Failure to do so could see us testing 100k as support,” wrote Davis.
With on-chain data flashing strength beneath the surface and traders split between despair and determination, Bitcoin’s October lull is shaping up as a pivotal inflection point.
However, it is conviction from the market’s smallest buyers that could determine whether there is a pause before breakdown, or the quiet before another parabolic run.
