US President Trump confirmed this morning (20th) that he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in Seoul, South Korea on October 31st. The news was like dropping a stone into a calm lake, immediately causing ripples in the cryptocurrency market. Investors' initial anxiety about tariff increases and trade deadlocks quickly cooled as both sides signaled dialogue, and market sentiment shifted from "extreme fear" to cautious optimism.
Market expectations cool as Trump-Xi meeting confirmed
In an interview with Fox News , Trump reaffirmed Xi Jinping's leadership and stated that a fair agreement must be reached between the two sides. He said:
"He's a very strong leader, a very remarkable man... We have to make a fair deal. It will be fair."
This tone contrasts with the tough rhetoric in the past when threatening to impose further tariffs, and has also led the capital market to bet that the trade conflict is likely to ease.
The warming geopolitical atmosphere was immediately reflected in prices. According to TradingView data , Bitcoin (BTC) rose by about 2% in 24 hours, reaching a high of $109,131 before falling back. Ethereum (ETH) and Binance Coin (BNB) each rose by 3.5%, and Solana (SOL) even rose by nearly 4%.
The day before, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had fallen to the "Extreme Fear" zone of 22 points. The rapid price recovery driven by political dialogue once again demonstrates the sensitivity of capital to macroeconomic signals.
When Trump's tariff stance on China became tougher, the crypto derivatives market saw a wave of liquidations of up to $20 billion. This reversal of sentiment restored risk appetite in the market within just a few hours and injected momentum into the originally sluggish trading volume.
Macroeconomic background links risk assets
The US-China trade friction is impacting global supply chains and inflation expectations, in turn influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. During periods of heightened tariff pressure, risk assets are generally under pressure. Once relations ease and inflation expectations decline, the market speculates that the Fed will have more room to maintain easing or even cut interest rates. Cryptocurrencies, as high-volatility, high-beta assets, are particularly sensitive to these macro narratives.
The analysis firm Kobeissi Letter notes that despite significant short-term price fluctuations, the long-term bull market structure remains intact, and an improving macroeconomic environment will solidify this trend. In other words, if substantial concessions are achieved in trade negotiations, it will not only help traditional stocks and bonds regain stability but also provide a boost to crypto assets.
Trump has confirmed a meeting with Xi Jinping at the end of October. If a concrete agreement can be reached and uncertainty resolved, it could be a significant short-term boost for investors. Markets are showing signs of a simultaneous correction, from indices and prices to derivatives positions. However, the details of the agreement remain uncertain, so these signals are likely a mix of rational and emotional expectations. Any slight change in the details of tariff increases or reductions could re-evaluate the situation. Investors should be vigilant to any setbacks during the negotiations and manage risk accordingly.
