Peter Brandt, a prominent Wall Street technical analyst, has taken a short position in Bitcoin (BTC) futures. Known as a long-term holder, Brandt's short-term bet on a decline is driven by a combination of factors, including the breakdown of key chart patterns and changes in Federal Reserve (Fed) policy.
Brandt recently identified a "broadening formation," also known as a "megaphone" pattern, on Bitcoin's daily chart. This pattern, which involves five distinct price swings, recently reached a high around $126,000 (approximately KRW 168.84 million). Bitcoin then remained within a range between $106,000 and $116,000 (approximately KRW 141.84 million to KRW 154.76 million) before breaking out of the lower range. The current price is around $109,500 (approximately KRW 146.52 million), down nearly 2% over the past week.
He analyzed that this box collapse increases the possibility of a short-term decline and suggested $97,000 (approximately 129.78 million won) and $84,721 (approximately 112.06 million won) as downside targets. He added that repeated resistance has formed at the upper end of Bitcoin's long-term trend line, and that past rejections at this level have resulted in declines of up to 84%. If the current pattern continues, he believes a decline of up to 73% cannot be ruled out.
According to Coinglass, which analyzes market liquidity, major sell orders and stop-loss orders are currently concentrated in the $113,000-$116,000 range (approximately 151.61 million to 154.76 million won). This suggests that a sharp price rebound could trigger a chain reaction of short position liquidations, potentially leading to a short-term surge. However, conversely, there are few buy orders waiting in the lower range, suggesting weak downside support.
Another variable that has recently weighed on Bitcoin prices is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Immediately following Chairman Jerome Powell's announcement, Bitcoin briefly fell below $108,000 (approximately KRW 145.08 million). Some market participants are interpreting this rate cut as a reflection of the typical investor sentiment of "buying on rumors and selling on results."
Nevertheless, on-chain indicators paint a different picture than the short-term decline. Bitcoin holdings on exchanges are declining, and large-scale transfers exceeding $1 million (approximately 1.3 billion won) are at a two-month high. This suggests continued accumulation by large investors.
For the time being, Bitcoin is likely to continue its mixed performance amidst technical indicators and policy news. Brandt's short position supports short-term weakness, but the struggle between liquidity and structural demand will likely be key to determining its future direction.
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