Despite the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) ending its quantitative easing (QT) policy and cutting interest rates twice, Bitcoin (BTC) has defied market expectations, exhibiting a downward trend instead of a rebound. Bitcoin, which once seemed to be gathering momentum, recently traded around $109,000 (approximately 193 million won), dashing expectations for a rally.
This week, despite a series of positive news announcements, including the Federal Reserve's announcement of the end of the Quantitative Trade (QT), a US-China trade truce, and the approval of an altcoin staking ETF, the market reaction was diametrically opposed. Bitcoin and the broader US stock market declined, a trend reflected in on-chain indicators. Notably, the "Coinbase Premium Gap" (CPG) returned to negative territory, signaling weakening institutional demand. This indicator, which reflects the buying sentiment of US institutional investors, signifies weakening confidence in Bitcoin prices.
What further chilled the market sentiment was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks. The end of the QT program was scheduled for December 1st, but Powell's refusal to confirm continued rate cuts dampened expectations for liquidity infusion. Furthermore, geopolitical factors, such as the possibility of the US government resuming nuclear testing and the instability of the US-China ceasefire, combined to push the market back into risk-averse mode.
Some interpret the recent correction as a cooling of overheated expectations rather than an unexpected negative factor. CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics firm, analyzed that while the Federal Reserve's cautious approach contributed to the immediate plunge, it could be a positive adjustment in the medium term, reducing bubbles and solidifying the foundation for growth. They also left open the possibility of an uptrend, arguing that if liquidity recovers, preference for riskier assets like Bitcoin could revive.
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm TeraHash has determined that the current $98,000 (approximately 173 million won) level is Bitcoin's key support level. They warn that if this level collapses, a drop of up to $70,000 (approximately 123 million won) cannot be ruled out. However, they maintain a bullish long-term outlook and predict that if US interest rates continue to decline and global economic conditions remain favorable, Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high by the end of next year or early 2026.
Ultimately, the current period presents the potential for additional volatility in either the short or long direction. Bitcoin's next rally appears to be possible only when policy and macroeconomic stability are established, rather than a short-term rebound.
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