Cryptocurrency analyst Joao Wedson, in his latest assessment of Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movements, suggested that statistical indicators suggest a new all-time high (ATH) is very close.
Wedson noted that Alphractal’s metric, known as the “Max Intersect SMA Model,” still indicates that the peak has not occurred.
“The last time I mentioned this model, BTC rose from $60,000 to $62,000,” Wedson said in his statement. “If it approaches $68,000, this could be the day the new ATH occurs,” he said. The analyst noted that the model correctly predicted the peaks in 2017 and 2021, adding, “This is no coincidence; it's a aria-describedby="caption-attachment-184344">
Wedson also noted that many analysts focus on macro indicators like liquidity, the yield curve, or monetary policy, but that such metrics are sometimes insufficient to predict market behavior. According to the analyst, Bitcoin is still in the “distribution phase” of its cycle. He noted that sideways consolidation is likely to occur during this phase as markets search for liquidity on both the upside and downside.
“A perfect ATH would occur between $143,000 and $146,000 based on Bitcoin's four-year cycle,” Wedson said, arguing that this prediction was based on data rather than speculation. However, he noted that the risk-reward ratio is no longer as attractive as it was in 2022 or 2023 because many investors are hesitant to sell.
*This is not investment advice.
