Vineet Budki, CEO of Middle Eastern venture capital firm Sigma Capital, recently stated in several media interviews that the "four-year cycle" of Bitcoin (BTC) remains a valuable reference point, and the next bear market may occur within two years, accompanied by a drop of up to 65%–70%. However, he believes that BTC's long-term value remains unchanged, and that it is not unrealistic to expect it to climb to $1 million within ten years.
Short-term risks: cyclical fluctuations and the root cause of selling pressure
Budki points out that historically, halving events have often been accompanied by a roughly three-year bull run followed by a one-year correction. If this pattern continues, the high point near $126,000 in October 2025 may have already marked the end of this bull market.
He told Cointelegraph at the 2025 Global Blockchain Conference in Dubai, UAE, that Bitcoin prices will pull back by 65% to 70% over the next two years because traders don’t understand the assets they hold and are prone to panic selling when faced with negative news.
"If Bitcoin falls to $70,000, it won't lose its utility. The problem is that people don't understand it, and they buy it and then sell it immediately, which is the source of selling pressure."
Long-term potential: A million-dollar vision and cyclical controversies
Even with a pessimistic view on the short term, he remains optimistic about the ten-year roadmap: expanding practical applications, influx of institutional funds, and the "digital gold" narrative make the million-dollar target achievable. Phemex quoted him as saying that financial institutions and governments currently hold nearly 20% of the total Bitcoin reserves, which increases market credibility and is expected to curb extreme volatility.
However, opinions differ within the industry as to whether the "four-year cycle" remains the dominant variable. Some bankers cited by Budki and Cryptopolitan insist that the cycle has not failed; BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and others believe that ETF demand and monetary policy are the main drivers in the modern era, and the predictive power of the cycle has been weakened. Forklog research also points out that ETF subscription inflows are more correlated with prices than overall liquidity.
In summary, Budki's "short-term bearish, long-term bullish" stance reminds investors that the market remains prone to sharp fluctuations due to the interplay of cyclical, macroeconomic, and institutional dynamics. When facing high-risk assets, understanding their economic attributes and establishing risk management mechanisms are crucial for navigating the next bull-bear market transition.
