Bitcoin’s price plunged nearly 5% on Tuesday. Consequently, this action triggered concerns among analysts that the cryptocurrency is approaching a technical breakdown akin to the start of previous bear cycles.
Experts warn that failure to reclaim the $102,000 level quickly would significantly heighten market risk.
The Bear Market Confirmation Line
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at the on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, stated on his X account Wednesday that Bitcoin’s price has now dropped below its 365-day Moving Average (MA).
The 365-day MA holds unique significance in the technical analysis of Bitcoin’s historical price action. Moreno emphasized its predictive power, noting, “It was the final confirmation of the start of the 2022 bear market.”
365-day Moving Average (MA) Source: @jjcmorenoThe chart analysis shows that the last price to sink below the 365-day MA was in December 2022. The price attempted to bounce back toward the line in March 2023 but failed to break above it. This failure led to a year-long downward trend that defined the “crypto winter.”
Bitcoin’s substantial breach of the 365-day MA in March 2023 marked the official end of that bear market. Following that breakout, the price consolidated sideways for about a year before initiating the strong uptrend toward the end of 2023.
MA Serves as Critical Support in Uptrends
During the bull run, the 365-day MA has consistently been a crucial support level.
- In August 2024, macroeconomic headwinds triggered the Yen carry-trade sell-off—a sharp 10% decline in one day. The price found firm support at the 365-day MA and subsequently rallied.
- The exact support mechanism was observed in April 2025 following the volatility spurred by President Trump’s trade tariffs.
The pattern confirms that a temporary price drop should bounce in a healthy uptrend and receive support near the 365-day MA.
According to Julio Moreno, the 365-day MA currently sits at $102,063. He delivered a clear warning regarding the immediate outlook: “The price needs to cross back above it quickly.”
This is consistent with the ‘Top Buyers Cost Basis Distribution‘ metric recently cited by Glassnode. This metric assesses the market situation using the average acquisition price of Bitcoin’s highest-price purchasers.
The average acquisition price for the top 25% of these high-cost buyers currently sits near $100,000. Notably, Bitcoin’s price has not dropped below this level in the last two years.
