By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin BTC$102,150.94 briefly slipped below $100,000 for the first time since June as a wave of liquidations and shifting macro expectations triggered a broad crypto sell-off.
The leading cryptocurrency is now down more than 20% from the all-time high above $126,000 it set in early October. The broader crypto market, as measured via the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, fell 2.6% in the last 24 hours and more than 27% in the past 30 days.
The sell-off intensified in the past 24 hours with more than $1.7 billion in crypto positions liquidated, according to CoinGlass. Long traders bore the brunt of the losses.
"Since the ~$19B liquidations on 10/10, markets have been cascading lower,” Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, told CoinDesk. “The current weakness reflects a mix of ongoing digestion of 10/10, slightly more hawkish Fed tone, and a broader risk-off across assets, with the Nasdaq, crypto’s closest proxy, down ~2% on valuation concerns.”
The drawdown is seeing bitcoin now fight to defend a key level, its 50-week simple moving average, which has historically supported its long-term price recoveries. That level is just under $103,000.
“The sell-off is a reminder that liquidity remains thin, especially in long-tail alts, which is why we’re seeing outsized negative price action, further propelled by a marketwide flight to safety,” De Maere said.
Meanwhile, Tuesday's $128 million hack on Balancer raised fresh concerns about security in the decentralized finance ecosystem, further chilling sentiment.
As it stands, sentiment has taken a hit with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index now sitting on “fear.” Near-term catalysts are limited according to De Maere, although the U.S. government reopening and supportive crypto legislation could support prices.
Stay alert!
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Crypto
- Nov. 5, 11:30 a.m.: Jupiter (JUP) hosts an AMA on X Spaces focused on its prediction market DeFi product.
- Macro
- Nov. 5, 8 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Oct. Services PMI (Prev. 46.3).
- Nov. 5, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. Oct. ADP Employment Change Est. 25K.
- Nov. 5, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Oct. Services PMI (Prev. 46.3).
- Nov. 5, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. Oct. (final) Services PMI Est. 55.2.
- Nov. 5, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Oct. Services PMI Est. 50.8.
- Nov. 5, 4:30 p.m.: Brazil central bank interest-rate decision. Est. 15%.
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Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Nov. 5: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.54
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Governance votes & calls
- Decentraland DAO is voting on a $10,000 proposal to fund an independent audit of Regenesis Labs by community member "Maryana," following concerns over fund usage. Voting ends Nov. 5.
- CoW DAO is voting to authorize its Foundation to sell the DAO's 50% stake in MEV Blocker, allowing the core team to focus on core products and directing all sale proceeds to the treasury. Voting ends Nov. 5.
- Ssv.network DAO is voting to sell SSV for USDC at a lower price tier ($11-$20) to build reserves. Voting ends Nov. 5.
- Unlocks
- No major unlocks.
- Token Launches
- Nov. 5: Linea Exponent schedule to begin.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Nov. 5: Global Digital Assets, ScienceTech & Web3 Forum (London)
- Nov. 5: Assets on Blockchain Conference (New York)
- Day 3 of 5: Hong Kong FinTech Week
- Day 2 of 2: Ripple’s Swell 2025 (New York)
- Day 2 of 2: Chainlink’s SmartCon (New York)
- Day 2 of 3: Schwab IMPACT 2025 (Denver, Colorado)
- Day 1 of 2: Blockchain Futurist Conference (Miami)
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The altcoin market remains in oversold territory following Tuesday's grueling sell-off that saw several tokens fall to their lowest in months.
- The average crypto relative strength index (RSI) is at 38/100, with tokens including OKB, SKY and FLR printing figures as low as 23/100. This suggests that while the overall crypto market is leaning bearish, a short-term relief rally may be on the cards.
- Any suggestion of a bounce would be invalidated if bitcoin BTC$102,150.94 and ether ETH$3,324.22 break below their respective levels of support at $99,000 and $3,100.
- If further downside in BTC and ETH was to occur, altcoins would fare worse due to a lack of liquidity and skewed levels of leverage. This means altcoin orderbooks simply do not have sufficient buy orders to absorb sell pressure and subsequent liquidations, resulting in dramatic spikes to the downside.
- Traders will be wondering whether the recent "altcoin season" is officially over with the majority of tokens, with the exception of privacy coins, eroding their rallies from July and August.
- The privacy coin narrative remains a key driver in the current market, while DCR and ZEC cooled off on Wednesday, XMR rose 7% and the entire sector remains significantly higher over the past month.
Derivatives Positioning
- The BTC futures market reflects rising caution. Open interest (OI) has declined to $25.3 billion from $26 billion last week, suggesting traders are reducing leverage. Seen against the higher BTC price year-over-year, the drop indicates that the relative amount of leverage in the market has not kept pace with asset appreciation.
- The three-month annualized basis is suppressed at 3%-4%, signaling that the basis trade is currently unappealing. Funding rates are mixed but low across major venues (4%-9% annualized), reinforcing a lack of strong trend commitment and overall market caution from the futures side.
- The bitcoin options market is displaying mixed but volatile signals.
- Implied volatility (IV) is high across all expiries, pointing to elevated near-term movement expectations. Structurally, the IV term structure shows near-term backwardation (downward slope) before resuming a long-term contango (upward slope).
- Despite this volatility, the recent trading bias has flipped back to bullish, with the 24-hour put-call volume leaning 58%-42% in favor of calls, indicating active upside preference.
- The recent price drop was heavily influenced by leveraged unwinds, with $1.7 billion in liquidations over the past 24 hours split 76%-24% in favor of long positions. ETH led the notional losses with $572 million liquidated.
- Crucially, the average long liquidation volume over the past two days of $1 billion is significantly higher than the seven-day average of $620 million, confirming the amplified impact of forced selling on current price action.
- Looking ahead, a bounce may face immediate resistance, with a key price level at $102,500 having $124 million in potential liquidations.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 1.79% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $102,069.70 (24hrs: -2.41%)
- ETH is up 3.03% at $3,310.76 (24hrs: -6.74%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.01% at 3,209.70 (24hrs: -3.56%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 8 bps at 3.01%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0036% (3.8905% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 100.21
- Gold futures are up 0.44% at $3,977.80
- Silver futures are up 0.44% at $47.50
- Nikkei 225 closed down 2.5% at 50,212.27
- Hang Seng closed unchanged at 25,935.41
- FTSE is unchanged at 9,707.29
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.64% at 5,624.23
- DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.53% at 47,085.24
- S&P 500 closed down 1.17% at 6,771.55
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.04% at 23,348.64
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.64% at 29,777.82
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.15% at 2,985.42
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.081%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.25% at 6,784.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.41% at 25,470.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 47,214.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 60.66% (-0.19%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03248 (0.25%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,091 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $41.43
- Total Fees: 3.95 BTC / $408,873
- CME Futures Open Interest: 135,465 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 24.1 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 6.80%
Technical Analysis
- The bitcoin weekly price chart is currently trading below the key support level near $107,000.
- A confirmed weekly candle close beneath this mark would be a significant bearish signal, turning the core support into formidable overhead resistance and signaling a breakdown of the prevailing bullish trend.
- It is crucial to monitor whether BTC can reclaim and close above $107,000 by the end of the week to prevent a structural trend reversal.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $307.32 (-6.99%), +1.71% at $312.56 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $111.25 (-5.61%), +1.84% at $113.30
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.17 (-10.64%), +0.74% at $31.40
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $45.75 (-8.97%), +2.86% at $47.06
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.62 (-6.68%), +1.87% at $16.93
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $19.27 (-6.97%), +0.49% at $19.37
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $21.74 (-5.07%), +0.78% at $21.91
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $16.22 (-6.89%), +0.62% at $16.32
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $58.44 (-4.91%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.13 (-8.18%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $246.99 (-6.68%), +1.63% at $251.01
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $23.95 (-5.75%), +1.04% at $24.20
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $11.68 (-10.77%), +1.88% at $11.90
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $3.5 (-8.85%), +2.86% at $3.60
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.76 (-8.33%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$566.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $60.4 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.34 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$219.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.03 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.67 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
- Bitcoin at Make or Break Level as China Suspends 24% Tariff on U.S. Goods (CoinDesk): The continued easing of trade tensions could eliminate a significant source of uncertainty for the global economy, supporting increased risk-taking, including in financial markets.
- Crypto Hit by Bitcoin Whales Dumping $45 Billion in Bets (Bloomberg): 10x Research’s Markus Thielen said longtime holders sold about 400,000 coins in a month, accounts with 100 to 1,000 coins have stopped buying and the unwind could persist into spring.
- Japan’s Crypto Players Jostle for Market Share on Regulatory Easing Hopes (Reuters): The jump points to growing risk appetite in Japan, with consumer price inflation outrunning salaries and the sting of the 2014 and 2018 crypto exchange breaches wearing off.
- Adam Back and Switzerland’s FUTURE Secure 28M Swiss Francs to Build Bitcoin Treasury (CoinDesk): The firm, under leadership of prominent figures, such as Richard Byworth, Sebastien Hess and Adam Back, raised 28 million Swiss francs ($35 million) to expand its balance-sheet-driven bitcoin treasury model.
