XRP is under selling pressure as whales Dump more than 90 million XRP in 72 hours, while the price remains stuck in a falling channel and valuation and Derivative signal caution.
The increase in Capital inflows, the increase in NVT and the decrease in Open Interest indicate that the selling pressure may continue in the short term. The $2.65 level is the threshold that triggers the trend, deciding the possibility of recovery or return to the support zone.
- Whales sell over 90 million XRP in 72 hours, reinforcing cautious sentiment and short-term volatility.
- Floor loading was around $16.8 million, NVT increased 104% to $129.02 and OI decreased 8.6% to $1.17 billion in agreement with the defensive trend.
- A decisive break above $2.65 could open the door to a move to $3.12–$3.60; failure would maintain the downtrend channel and risk a retreat to $2.20.
Net selling whales confirm cautious market sentiment
Over 90 million XRP were sold by whale wallets in 72 hours, increasing supply pressure and triggering short-term volatility. This development often precedes local corrections when large investors actively distribute.
Large-scale trading volume creates high liquidation , forcing small investors to adjust their positions quickly. The timing of the Dump shows that whales are taking advantage of short-term rallies to take profits, preparing for a further decline.
If the selling momentum sustains, XRP 's bounce will weaken in the short term as supply forces dominate, requiring new money flow signals to balance.
XRP stuck in falling channel, needs to break $2.65 to reverse
XRP is currently trading in a descending channel, hovering around $2.40 after bouncing from the $2.20 support zone. This structure reflects a tug-of-war: buyers hold support, sellers block any attempt to break above the resistance.
A clear break above $2.65 would confirm a bullish phase change, opening targets at $3.12 and further at $3.60. Conversely, a rejection at the upper border would trigger channel selling.
In the absence of catalysts, the downtrend channel remains dominant. Investors should closely monitor the price reaction at $2.65 and the $2.20 support zone on the technical chart (source: TradingView).
The increase in floor loading shows that selling intention is returning.
Exchange data shows that more than $16.8 million worth of XRP was transferred to trading platforms, implying the risk of increased selling pressure from large investors (source: CoinGlass).
Typically, sustained high net inflows precede periods of selling pressure as investors prepare to Dump following a recovery. This limits upside potential and creates a short-term supply-demand imbalance.
Conversely, if deposits decrease and withdrawals increase, it is an accumulation signal. Before such a change, the short-term picture is still defensive with the risk of retesting the $2.20 area.
Strong NVT surge raises concerns valuation outpaces network performance
XRP 's Network Value to Transactions (NVT) increased 104% to 129.02, indicating that Capital is growing faster than on-chain transaction activity (source: CryptoQuant). This is a signal that valuation may be getting ahead of real demand.
High NVT often reflects a relative decline in network utility or slowing on-chain flows despite price increases. During accumulation phases, NVT may temporarily increase as investors hold rather than trade.
“The NVT ratio is the ratio of Network Value to Volume; it is similar to the P/E ratio in the stock market.”
– Willy Woo, on-chain analyst, article “Bitcoin NVT Ratio”, Woobull.com, 2017
If NVT remains high for a long time, the risk of a price cooling to resynchronize with network activity increases. In the short term, this is why investors should be cautious with weak rallies.
Falling Open Interest Shows Weakening Leverage and Risk Appetite
XRP Open Interest (OI) fell 8.6% to $1.17 billion, reflecting position closures amid high volatility and waning speculative sentiment (source: CryptoQuant).
Low leverage can reduce short-term volatility, but it also shows that buying momentum is fading. With both Longing and Short positions cautious, the market is more likely to move sideways or make a technical correction.
Without a fresh catalyst from spot cash flows, OI may continue to shrink, creating a difficult recovery scenario despite reduced leverage risk.
The $2.65 mark determines XRP 's short-term scenario
A combination of whale net selling, increased floor loading, high NVT and falling OI supports the defensive view. However, the technical structure still opens the possibility of recovery if the price breaks above $2.65.
A decisive break above $2.65 would trigger an uptrend towards $3.12–$3.60. Failure at the falling channel could drag the price back to $2.20 to test the buying power.
The upcoming direction depends on the ability of the buyers to absorb the selling pressure from whales and the improving consensus on money flow, on-chain and Derivative indicators.
Summary table of key signals and trading implications
| Indicator | Current Status | Implications | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whale activity | Sold > 90 million XRP in 72 hours | Short-term supply increases, amplifying volatility | Market data synthesis |
| Floor loading line | ~16.8 million USD worth of XRP poured into the exchange | Selling pressure may increase | CoinGlass |
| NVT | Up 104% to 129.02 | Pricing risk beyond network operations | CryptoQuant |
| Open Interest | Down 8.6% to $1.17 billion | Leverage shrinks, speculative confidence weakens | CryptoQuant |
| Price technique | Downward channel, price around $2.40; support $2.20; resistance $2.65 | Need to break $2.65 to confirm reversal | TradingView |
Frequently Asked Questions
What conditions does XRP need to escape the falling channel?
A clear close above $2.65 with increased volume and declining floor fill will consolidate channel breakout confirmation, opening targets of $3.12–$3.60.
Does high NVT always mean XRP is overvalued?
Not always. NVT can increase temporarily as the market consolidates. However, if it remains high for a long time, the risk adjusts to synchronize with increased network activity (source: CryptoQuant; conceptual analysis by Willy Woo, 2017).
How does the $16.8 million floor load affect the price?
Increased floor deposits are often accompanied by short-term selling pressure due to liquidation preparation. If the trend reverses to net withdrawals, it is a signal of accumulation and price support (source: CoinGlass).
What does an 8.6% drop in Open Interest say about market sentiment?
This shows that investors are closing out positions and reducing leverage as volatility increases. This reduces market noise but also reflects weak bullish sentiment (source: CryptoQuant).
What are the key XRP price milestones to watch?
Support at $2.20 and key resistance at $2.65. Breaking above $2.65 opens the target at $3.12–$3.60; failure could pull the price back to $2.20 to test buying power.
