Various predictions are circulating regarding the price trend of Bitcoin for the upcoming December 2025.
However, there is no consensus among the various analysts, so it is currently not possible to take a specific forecast and choose it as a reference point.
In fact, there are two different “schools of thought” that reach opposite conclusions, and therefore both should be taken into consideration.
Summary
The Bearish Forecasts
A prominent school of thought is that which claims the current Bitcoin cycle is now coming to an end.
Bitcoin cycles last about 4 years, and are marked by halving events that occur on average every approximately 3 years and 10 months. The last one took place in April of last year, and usually, the following year sees a strong bull run.
Until today, the Bitcoin price cycle has lasted exactly 4 years, with the peaks of the various cycles recorded at the end of 2013, end of 2017, end of 2021, and end of 2025.
To be honest, in 2013 and 2017 the final bullrun was of colossal proportions, while the one in 2021 was meager compared to the beginning of 2021.
The bullrun at the end of 2025, which concluded in early October, was in some ways similar to that of 2021, and this is why some believe that the current cycle has now ended.
According to this interpretation, the trend of Bitcoin’s price is about to enter a genuine bear-market.
Bitcoin: Optimistic Forecasts for December
However, there is another school of thought, perhaps less numerous but still widespread, which argues that there might be one last “leg” of the 2025 bullrun.
Supporting this forecast, which is contrary to the previous one, is the possibility of a further weakening of the dollar that could trigger a so-called “Christmas rally“.
In such a case, it would be an unprecedented event for Bitcoin, not because there have never been year-end rallies, but because in the past, major speculative bubbles have never extended so far beyond November.
The longest duration was in 2017, when the bubble finished inflating in mid-December, but none have ever reached the end of December or even the beginning of the following year.
However, it should be added that the hypothesis of a “Christmas rally” is also discussed in relation to traditional stock markets, so it is not as weak an assumption as it might appear if one only examined the historical trend of BTC.
The Dollar Index
In the medium term, the trend of the price of Bitcoin tends to be inversely correlated with the Dollar Index, which is the index that measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of other currencies, including the euro.
Interestingly, starting from the end of July, the trend of the Dollar Index has been following a pattern almost identical to that of the same period in 2017.
It is noteworthy that 2017 was Donald Trump’s first year in the White House during his first term, while 2025 marks the first year of his second term in the White House.
Given that it is highly unlikely for the correlation of the Dollar Index trend over the past two and a half months to be merely coincidentally similar to that of 2017, as it is almost identical, it leads one to think that perhaps in some way Donald Trump is behind these dynamics, and thus they might repeat.
The fact is that in 2017, after a brief rebound from mid-September to just before mid-November, the Dollar Index resumed its decline, just as it had from January to September, and it fell significantly further.
This year also started to decline in January, although the drop halted by the end of June. However, from mid-September, an upswing began that was almost identical to that of 2017.
If this year, as eight years ago, it starts to decline again from the second half of November until February of the following year, one could expect a positive reaction in the price of Bitcoin, with a second leg of the 2025 bullrun potentially inflating a new speculative bubble.
The Bear Market
It is worth noting, however, that both the prevailing forecasts, namely the pessimistic and the optimistic ones mentioned above, share a common idea: next year the price of BTC could enter a bear-market.
The difference lies in the fact that the first prediction claims it has already entered, while the second postpones the entry to the early months of next year.
To be honest, the term bear-market in the crypto realm causes some confusion, because the correct and original definition inherited from traditional stock exchanges is not useful when applied to crypto markets.
Traditionally, a -20% from the highs is enough to enter a bear-market, but in crypto markets, a -20% is so common that it cannot be used as a benchmark to determine whether the price of Bitcoin has entered a bear-market or not.
For example, during previous major bear markets of BTC, its price dropped by -85% or -75% from the highs, and in the next case, one should expect at least a -60% decline from the highs.
It remains a fact that there is consensus that in 2026 the price of Bitcoin may eventually enter a bear market.
