Long-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders have sold off over 300,000 BTC since July, with a significant portion being absorbed by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional investors. This suggests a "quiet wealth transfer" is occurring in the cryptocurrency market.
According to on-chain analyst Shenaka Anslem Perera, early Bitcoin long-term wallets—those that haven't moved for more than 155 days—are selling their Bitcoin through OTC transactions and ETF structures, reallocating wealth without a sharp price drop. The total selling volume is approximately 300,000 BTC, or approximately 33 trillion won.
The leading Bitcoin spot ETFs, BlackRock and Fidelity, currently hold a total of 1.4 million BTC (approximately 139 trillion won). Despite a $2.9 billion (approximately 3.9 trillion won) outflow in October, the market is showing signs of recovery, with $300 million (approximately 410 billion won) inflows in early November.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas analyzed on the 11th of last month that the $2.7 billion (approximately 3.7 trillion won) in outflows across ETFs was only 1.5% of total assets under management, meaning that 98.5% of holdings remained solid.
According to Perera, despite these structural changes, the Bitcoin price remains stable, trading between $95,000 and $106,000, with volatility falling to 35%, half the historical average. Unrealized losses are also just 3.1%, demonstrating market stability.
This trading structure between long-term holders and institutions is invalidating the logic of past Bitcoin price cycles. While Bitcoin typically rose by over 150% following halvings, this cycle saw a mere 41% gain. Perera attributed this change to a "continuous buying wait" situation arising from ETFs and corporate treasuries. Strategy also contributes to market stability, holding over 641,000 BTC to date.
Opinions are divided on the market's next move. Japan-based research firm XWIN analyzed that the strong resistance level formed between $107,000 (approximately 143 million won) and $118,000 (approximately 158 million won) has not been broken, and selling pressure from long-term holders remains.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $104,500 (approximately 140 million won), down about 8% this month but up 18% year-to-date. Some predict that if the price remains above $100,000 (approximately 135 million won) for a certain period and institutional capital inflows continue, another bull market could unfold. Conversely, if the downward trend is broken, the key support level of $88,500 (approximately 120 million won) could be tested.
This phenomenon demonstrates a fundamental shift in the "rules of the game" of the cryptocurrency market. Analysis suggests that a new price structure, driven by institutions, is emerging, rather than the volatile fluctuations driven by individual investors.
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