After the Bitcoin price fell to $95,000, cryptocurrency analyst Colin Talks Crypto published a comprehensive and cautionary assessment of the market.
The analyst stated that Bitcoin reacted accurately from the lower band of the long-followed giant megaphone formation and argued that maintaining this level is of critical importance.
According to Colin, Bitcoin has fit this formation perfectly so far, and a break below the lower band could turn the current weak outlook into a much more negative picture.
The analyst also highlighted the “death cross,” which he said is just one day away for Bitcoin. In this formation, the 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day moving average is generally seen as a timing signal indicating a market bottom. Colin noted that in past cycles, bottoms have followed death crosses, and stated that a strong bounce is likely following this cross. However, he noted that it's not yet clear whether this move will mark a new uptrend or simply a relief rally.
Another indicator showing weakness for Bitcoin is the 50-week moving average. Colin stated that if weekly closes continue below this level, the possibility of a bear market will increase.
He stated that short-term spikes are normal, but a two-week or longer close would create a negative outlook. He also noted that the correlation between global M2 money supply and Bitcoin has been deteriorating for months, a typical divergence seen in previous cycle peaks. Therefore, he found some analysts' comments that “Bitcoin will catch up with M2 again” inaccurate, stating that this ignores cycle peak behavior.
The analyst noted that the gold chart also provides a significant leading signal for Bitcoin, adding that gold's recent strong rally could have a delayed impact on Bitcoin. He explained that with the gold price movement being pulled forward by approximately 80 days, Bitcoin has reached the same level as gold's upward trend, and that this, combined with the megaphone formation and the looming death cross, increases the likelihood of a short-term bounce.
In his overall assessment, Colin Talks Crypto noted that technical indicators point to a strong uptrend in the short term, but it is too early to tell whether this is a path to a new all-time high.
He stated that he holds 96% of his portfolio in Bitcoin, a protective approach during periods of uncertainty. He added that altcoins lose much more value in a true bear market, making him cautious. Still, he said a new peak by the end of the year or in January is the primary scenario, with the second possibility of a shallower decline followed by a short-lived mini-bear market, allowing for a new rally in 2026, albeit a small one.
Finally, the analyst noted that he has not yet seen any signs of “excessive enthusiasm” or “inflation” in the current cycle, with Bitcoin going through this cycle with a more cascading and slow-moving structure.
*This is not investment advice.
