Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the second time this week, losing 12% in a month. The overall crypto market has lost more than $700 billion in value over the past month, as the Fear and Greed Index fell into 'extreme fear' territory.

So, do all these market indicators signal a bear market? Let's analyze the technical and historical data.

Sentiment signals are at bear market levels

A Fear & Greed Index reading of 10 reflects extreme fear equivalent to early 2022 and June 2022, both of which confirm bear market periods .

• Yesterday: 16
• Last week: 20
• Last month: 28

The trend shows increasing fear , not psychological stability. Often, bear markets start with this kind of persistent fear pressure.

However, sentiment alone does not confirm a bear market — it only signals capitulation or exhaustion.

Bitcoin has broken the most important support in the bull market

The 365 day moving Medium is a long term structural pivot point.

Current situation:

• 365 day MA near $102,000.
• Bitcoin is trading below this level.
• The breakdown is similar to December 2021, when price lost the same MA and the bear market started.

History:

Failure to recapture this level quickly usually confirms a cycle shift. This is one of the strongest technical arguments for a bear market transition.

On- chain cost basis shows early Capitulation , not distribution peak

The actual UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) price from the past 6–12 months is around $94,600. Bitcoin price is currently slightly higher than this.

This is important because:

• These holders bought into the ETF's rally.
• They represent buyers who have faith in the bull cycle.
• As their positions enter a loss, the market structure weakens.

In 2021, Bitcoin's price falling below this group's cost basis was one of the last signals before a prolonged bear market, marking the first time cost basis pressure has re-emerged since 2022.

This supports the idea of ​​a mid-cycle hiatus, rather than a full-blown macro bear trend.

RSI shows oversold conditions, typical of a mid-cycle crash

Reading RSI across the market:

• Crypto Medium RSI: 43.09
• BTC RSI is among the lowest on the large scale
• Only 2.5% of assets are overbought
• Most are in oversold territory

This is similar to May–July 2021, August 2023, and August 2024. Each is a mid-cycle correction, not a late-cycle bear market. When RSI is deeply oversold for multiple weeks, the bearish move is confirmed.

Currently, RSI shows pressure but not enough to reverse the trend.

MACD shows strong divergence across the market

The current Medium MACD is 0.02. This shows that weak bullish momentum is returning . In addition, 58% of assets in the market are in positive momentum.

However, Bitcoin is deep in negative territory while altcoins are mixed.

When BTC has a negative MACD but the market still has more than 50% positive momentum, the market is in a transition phase and not a full downtrend.

In outright bear markets, over 90% of assets have negative MACDs at the same time. That is not happening now.

So, is this a bear market?

The crypto market is not in a confirmed bear market yet — it is in a mid-cycle decline with the potential to become a bear market if two conditions are met.

Here are three conditions that would confirm a decline:

1. Bitcoin stays below the 365-day MA for 4–6 weeks. This has triggered every bear market in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
2. Long term investors continue to distribute heavily. If LTH (long term investors) sales exceed 1 million BTC in 60 days, the cycle top has been reached.
3. MACD turned negative across the board. We are not there yet.

Overall, the crypto market has not entered a bear market, but the current decline puts the market in a high-risk zone where a bear market could form if Bitcoin fails to regain long-term support soon.