Has the market officially entered a long-term downtrend? From my technical analysis perspective, in terms of structure The market Unconfirmed the DOWNTREND, but the PROBABILITY of a NEW ATH for BTC is not much left If we look at the weekly chart ( BTC/ USDT pair on Binance), XEM at the Volume during the upswings The whole increase from April of this year until October was VERY WEAK, unlike the end of 2024 In addition, the correction of the past month had very strong Volume , RSI diverged => the most recent uptrend is no longer sustainable and strong. Compared to the chart in 2021, you can see a similar structure. The uptrend at the end of 2021 (July-December) was also weak, with no Volume compared to the beginning of 2021, RSI divergence And what is the result, after adjusting to the 40k support zone, the price recovered for 1-2 months and then continued to break down to the Dip of 16k I think there is a high probability that this scenario will repeat itself due to the similarity in structure and volume. Also, looking at the 4-year cycle, are we in the final year of the season (from the downtrend period of 2022 to next year, 2026)? But the cycle of history always repeats itself for financial markets. So for me, buying at the Dip will also wait for a recovery and then close, not multiplying many times. The best time to buy long-term hold of top coins will be 2026