(November 24 - November 30, 2025)
Last week, global markets underwent a stress test driven by macroeconomic panic. The lagged impact of the September non-farm payroll data, coupled with hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, briefly led investors to believe that the AI bubble was about to burst. However, as institutions such as CITIC Securities pointed out that the decline was actually due to profit-taking rather than a deterioration in fundamentals, and with New York Fed President Williams' timely dovish reassurance over the weekend, market sentiment quickly recovered in early trading on Monday.
Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded strongly this morning, briefly breaking through $88,000, and is currently trading at $86,861 . This indicates that the market is shifting from simple fear to a new game of strategy.
Although the trading days are shortened this week due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, the narrative density is extremely high. We will witness a top-tier battle between bulls and bears: on one side, Trump unveils his groundbreaking national AI policy; on the other, renowned short seller Michael Burry vows to expose the profit black hole of tech giants. Coupled with the final PCE inflation data before the Fed enters its blackout period, this week is destined to be a head-on clash between policy- long and valuation- short bearishness .
Key Takeaway 1: The Ice and Fire of AI Narrative – Trump's New Policies vs. Short by Major Bears
This week, the AI and technology sectors will be anything but calm, with two diametrically opposed forces clashing fiercely at the start of the week.
- Multiple nuclear bombs (Monday): Trump signs the Genesis Mission. Trump plans to sign this new AI policy, likened to the Manhattan Project, at the White House. This is not just an executive order, but a signal that the United States is elevating computing power to the level of national strategic security.
- Core logic: Use national power to remove the computing power bottleneck and regulatory constraints on AI development.
- Market Impact: This is a long-term and significant boon for the AI infrastructure, chip manufacturing, and DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure) sectors in the crypto space . It suggests a substantial abundance of electricity and computing resources, providing a strong boost to investors concerned about computing power bottlenecks.
- Short Sellers Attack (Tuesday): Michael Burry, the notorious short seller who short subprime mortgages in 2008, has once again taken a stand against the market. He accused tech giants of inflating profits by a staggering $176 billion by underestimating depreciation (extending server lifespan), specifically naming Meta and Oracle.
- In-depth analysis: This is not simply a financial question, but a test of the sustainability of AI business models. If the market accepts Burry's logic that rapid hardware iteration leads to the devaluation of existing assets, then the high valuations of tech stocks will face a reassessment.
- From a crypto perspective: If the Nasdaq experiences a pullback due to Burry's short report, Bitcoin, as a high-beta asset, will inevitably be affected. However, if the market ignores this news (believing that cash flow remains strong), the rebound will be more intense.
Key Takeaway 2: The Final Hurdle in Macroeconomics – PCE Data and the Geopolitical Ultimatum
- November 26 (Wednesday), Beijing Time: US October Core PCE Price Index, Q3 GDP Revised Figure
- November 27 (Thursday), Beijing time: The day Trump issues his final ultimatum to Russia and Ukraine.
1. The Final Confirmation of a December Rate Cut: New York Fed President Williams hinted over the weekend that a December rate cut would be appropriate, directly bringing the market's expected probability of a rate cut back to 70%. With the Fed entering its blackout period this Friday (29th), Wednesday's PCE data will be the final verdict in this round of negotiations.
- Scenario simulation:
- As expected (moderate): As long as the PCE doesn't accelerate significantly, Williams' dovish comments will set the official tone. The market will confirm a 25bps rate cut in December, causing the dollar index to fall, which is positive for BTC as it approaches $90,000.
- Unexpected overheating: This will severely contradict Williams' predictions and trigger dramatic fluctuations in expectations. Given the reduced liquidity before Thanksgiving, this could lead to a pre-holiday sell-off in the market.
2. Debunking the Falsehoods of Geopolitics: Trump declared November 27 as the deadline for Ukraine to accept the 28-point peace plan.
- Potential risks: If a peace agreement is reached, it will be seen as a major release of global geopolitical risks, which is good for risk assets; if the negotiations break down or the situation escalates, the safe-haven properties of gold and Bitcoin may be reactivated, but this will also be accompanied by a surge in market volatility.
Other events worth noting
- Tuesday: Alibaba's earnings report. As a bellwether for Chinese concept stocks, its performance will verify the resilience of Chinese e-commerce in the face of macroeconomic headwinds.
- Thursday: US markets closed for Thanksgiving. Be wary of potential liquidity shortages on Wednesday evening (during US stock trading hours) due to the upcoming holiday, as this often amplifies price volatility in the crypto market.
Weekly Summary and Outlook
In summary, the main theme of the market this week was recovery and competition .
Williams' speech put an end to last week's macroeconomic panic, as evidenced by BTC's return above $86,000. The focus has now shifted to a deeper logical debate: should we believe in Trump's groundbreaking AI initiatives, or worry about the earnings bubble perceived by the bears?
For crypto investors, the most dangerous moment in the macro environment seems to have passed (unless the PCE data debacle occurs). The trading strategy for this week should be as follows: at the beginning of the week, focus on the policy benefits of AI narratives; in the middle of the week, closely monitor the PCE data release; and at the end of the week, be wary of the risk of a price spike due to low liquidity during Thanksgiving.
