Followin消息，根據聯準會最新發布的研究顯示，美國前100大銀行與100家非銀行金融機構（NBFIs）在「第三方服務供應商」層級存在高度集中風險，一旦關鍵雲端、支付或核心 IT 服務商遭遇癱瘓，將迅速演變為跨市場的系統性事件。模型顯示，在極端情境下，系統性事故造成的 99.9% 尾端損失規模可遠高於常態營運風險，營運中斷已成為主要損失來源而非傳統信用事件。
從宏觀金融角度觀察，該研究首度以量化方式證實「數位基礎設施失效」本身即可構成金融危機觸發器，而非僅為附帶風險。當第三方關鍵節點失效，將同步衝擊支付清算、流動性配置、信貸傳導與風險對沖機制，短期內推升美元需求、壓縮全球美元流動性，並使信用利差與波動率出現階躍式上行。銀行雖在名目暴露上低於非銀行機構，但其相對營收的極端損失反而更大，顯示大型傳統金融體系在尾端風險上的脆弱性被市場長期低估。
加密市場對此類「功能性風險」的敏感度更高，交易所、錢包、託管、預言機與結算層高度依賴雲端與第三方授權服務，一旦出現區域性或供應商級中斷，極易形成連鎖清算與流動性真空。歷史經驗顯示，此類非價格型衝擊往往導致短期槓桿資金被動去化，波動率急遽放大。短線比特幣結構支撐將回測高槓桿密集區，下方流動性若被穿透，需提防「流動性螺旋式下跌」風險。
Bitunix分析師：
這份報告的核心意義在於，市場正從「金融風險定價」邁入「基礎設施風險定價」的新階段。未來資金配置將不僅考量利率與成長，還將同步評估系統運作的穩定性與供應鏈集中度。風險偏好將更具事件驅動特性，真正的結構性機會將出現在韌性資產與去中心化基礎設施價值被重新定價的時點。

Followin消息，根據聯準會最新發布的研究顯示，美國前100大銀行與100家非銀行金融機構（NBFIs）在「第三方服務供應商」層級存在高度集中風險，一旦關鍵雲端、支付或核心 IT 服務商遭遇癱瘓，將迅速演變為跨市場的系統性事件。模型顯示，在極端情境下，系統性事故造成的 99.9% 尾端損失規模可遠高於常態營運風險，營運中斷已成為主要損失來源而非傳統信用事件。從宏觀金融角度觀察，該研究首度以量化方式證實「數位基礎設施失效」本身即可構成金融危機觸發器，而非僅為附帶風險。當第三方關鍵節點失效，將同步衝擊支付清算、流動性配置、信貸傳導與風險對沖機制，短期內推升美元需求、壓縮全球美元流動性，並使信用利差與波動率出現階躍式上行。銀行雖在名目暴露上低於非銀行機構，但其相對營收的極端損失反而更大，顯示大型傳統金融體系在尾端風險上的脆弱性被市場長期低估。加密市場對此類「功能性風險」的敏感度更高，交易所、錢包、託管、預言機與結算層高度依賴雲端與第三方授權服務，一旦出現區域性或供應商級中斷，極易形成連鎖清算與流動性真空。歷史經驗顯示，此類非價格型衝擊往往導致短期槓桿資金被動去化，波動率急遽放大。短線比特幣結構支撐將回測高槓桿密集區，下方流動性若被穿透，需提防「流動性螺旋式下跌」風險。 Bitunix分析師： 這份報告的核心意義在於，市場正從「金融風險定價」邁入「基礎設施風險定價」的新階段。未來資金配置將不僅考量利率與成長，還將同步評估系統運作的穩定性與供應鏈集中度。風險偏好將更具事件驅動特性，真正的結構性機會將出現在韌性資產與去中心化基礎設施價值被重新定價的時點。

Bitunix分析師：聯準會研究報告 - 第三方供應鏈成金融穩定新斷層，系統性風險進入可量化階段

Followin to a recent study released by the Federal Reserve, the top 100 U.S. banks and 100 non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) exhibit a high concentration risk at the "third-party service provider" level. If critical cloud, payment, or core IT service providers experience outages, it could rapidly escalate into a systemic event across markets. The model shows that in extreme scenarios, the 99.9% tail loss from a systemic incident could far exceed the scale of normal operational risks, with operational disruption becoming the primary source of loss rather than traditional credit events.
From a macro-financial perspective, this study is the first to quantitatively confirm that "digital infrastructure failure" itself can be a trigger for a financial crisis, rather than merely an incidental risk. When key third-party nodes fail, it will simultaneously impact payment clearing, liquidity allocation, credit transmission, and risk hedging mechanisms, pushing up demand for the US dollar in the short term, compressing global dollar liquidity, and causing credit spreads and volatility to rise sharply. Although banks have lower nominal exposure than non-bank institutions, their extreme losses relative to revenue are actually greater, indicating that the vulnerability of large traditional financial systems to tail risks has been underestimated by the market for a long time.
The crypto market is more sensitive to this type of "functional risk." Exchanges, wallets, custody, oracles, and settlement layers heavily rely on cloud and third-party authorized services. Regional or vendor-level disruptions can easily trigger cascading liquidations and liquidity vacuums. Historical experience shows that such non-price shocks often lead to the passive unwinding of short-term leveraged funds and a sharp increase in volatility. Short-term Bitcoin support will likely retest the high-leverage zone; if the lower liquidity level is breached, the risk of a "liquidity spiral" should be anticipated.
Bitunix Analyst:
The core significance of this report lies in the fact that the market is moving from "financial risk pricing" to "infrastructure risk pricing." Future capital allocation will not only consider interest rates and growth, but will also simultaneously assess the stability of system operations and the concentration of the supply chain. Risk appetite will become more event-driven, and genuine structural opportunities will emerge when the value of resilient assets and decentralized infrastructure is repriced.

According to the latest Federal Reserve research, the top 100 U.S. banks and 100 major non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) face highly concentrated exposure to “third-party service providers.” If a critical cloud, payments, or core IT vendor suffers a disruption, the shock could rapidly escalate into a cross-market systemic event. The model indicates that under extreme scenarios, 99.9% tail losses from such operational failures exceed traditional business-as-usual operational risks, making operational outages—not credit events—the primary source of extreme losses. From a macro-financial perspective, this study is the first to quantitatively confirm that digital infrastructure failure itself can trigger a financial crisis rather than merely amplify it. When a key third-party node collapses, payment settlement, liquidity allocation, credit transmission, and hedging mechanisms all come under simultaneous stress—driving a short-term surge in USD demand, tightening global dollar liquidity, and causing credit spreads and volatility to jump sharply. Although banks show lower nominal exposure relative to NBFIs, their extreme losses as a share of revenue are significantly higher, suggesting the fragility of traditional financial institutions has long been underestimated. In crypto markets, sensitivity to such “functional risks” is even more pronounced. Exchanges, wallets, custodians, oracles, and settlement layers rely heavily on cloud infrastructures and permissioned third-party services. Any regional or vendor-level outage can rapidly trigger cascading liquidations and liquidity vacuums. Historically, these non-price shocks force leveraged positions to unwind mechanically, driving volatility sharply higher. Short-term BTC structural support would retest high-leverage clusters, and if liquidity layers break, the risk of a “liquidity spiral” emerges. Bitunix Analyst View: This report signals a shift from pricing financial risk to pricing infrastructure risk. Future capital allocation will consider not only interest rates and growth but also system resilience and supply-chain concentration. Risk appetite will become increasingly event-driven, with structural opportunities emerging when resilient assets and decentralized infrastructure are revalued.

Bitunix Analyst: Federal Reserve Research Warns — Third-Party Supply Chains Have Become a New Fault Line for Financial Stability, Systemic Risk Now Quantifiable

China reaffirms its “absolute ban” stance on crypto. Photo: Fundfa
Mainland continues to issue warnings
China is sending its strongest message since its blanket ban on cryptocurrencies in 2018.

China reaffirms its “absolute ban” stance on crypto

Controversial information in the crypto community related to MON - the Token of the Monad ecosystem - has just had a new development when Evgeny Gaevoy, founder of Wintermute, officially denied the allegations that...

Wintermute Denies Rumors of Short Monad's MON Token , Claims to Be Longing

Cryptocurrency analyst Colin Talks Crypto shared his updated assessment of Bitcoin's potential trajectory over the next 12 months, and issued a particularly noteworthy warning about bullish expectatio...