Chainfeeds Summary:
Emotions are receding, industries are undergoing selection, and the future is being rearranged.
Article source:
https://x.com/mscryptojiayi/status/1993652331754209765
Article Author:
Jiayi
Opinion:
Jiayi: In 2025, there's a very obvious fact, but most people are unwilling to admit it: we didn't see the expected bull market, but instead experienced a systemic deflationary bubble. Many people interpret this as a bad thing, but if you look at the longer term, you'll find that years where prices plummet before they even rise are actually the best time for the industry to develop a truly mature structure. Why? Because everything is exactly the same as the early days of the internet, only the speed has been amplified by the leverage of crypto. If you want to truly understand today's crypto, the simplest way is to view it as an accelerated version of the early internet. Many people believe that the chaos, bubble, and speculation in crypto are the industry's unique original sin. But if you extend the timeline, you'll find that this is not an exception at all, but rather a standard feature of almost all technological revolutions—the internet in 2000 was just as crazy. I wrote an article before explaining this logic: given the amplified leverage efficiency, the market operation methods of Web2, the internet, and crypto are essentially convergent. However, what the internet accomplished in twenty years, crypto may have to accomplish in less than ten. The same logic applies to the financial markets. If you find the volatility of cryptocurrencies dramatic, it's simply because you've forgotten the early stages of the internet. In 1999, anyone with ".com" in their name could raise funds. eToys surged 900% on its first day of trading, and investors were as frenzied as during the early days of cryptocurrencies. Then the bubble burst. The Nasdaq plummeted from over 5000 points to 1114; headlines proclaimed the internet a scam; everyone said the internet was finished. That sentiment was almost identical to today's crypto market: those who didn't understand it denounced it as a scam; those who did understand it were blinded by the bubble; ultimately, everyone suffered a stampede; and then everyone collectively doubted the future itself. But ironically—the true internet era began the moment the bubble burst. When the tide recedes, it not only reveals who's been swimming naked, but also helps us identify the true contenders who are most likely to reach the other side. In 2002, Amazon's stock price was only $0.60. Google wasn't even listed yet. Those companies that survived, in the years least visible, actually built the real infrastructure, business models, and profit models. Crypto is most similar to 2002–2004: not the hottest years, but the most crucial. The bursting of the bubble cleared away the noise, and trends, directions, infrastructure, and real players began to be built. I particularly like the concept of negation of negation because it perfectly describes the evolution of technology and industry. Negation of negation: the development of things is never a straight upward line. It's more like going in circles: every time you think you've returned to the starting point, you're actually already on a higher level. The most typical example is the three iterations of computing architecture. 1950s: IBM mainframes—centralized, computing power was concentrated in the hands of a very few institutions—governments, banks, large enterprises. This was the first centralization: whoever had the machine had the power. 1980s: the PC revolution—decentralization. Steve Jobs said the computer was the people's bicycle. Computing power moved from server rooms to everyone's desktop, and everyone had their own computer, which seemed like a negation of centralized power. Computing began to decentralize, becoming personalized and localized. 2010s: Cloud computing—the negation of the negation of centralization, reaching a higher level. AWS, Alibaba Cloud, and various public clouds recentralized computing power back to data centers. On the surface, this seemed like a return to the mainframe era; yet, a few giants once again controlled massive computing power. It appears that cloud computing has returned to mainframe centralization, but in essence, it is not on the same level at all: terminal sovereignty comes from PCs, elastic computing power comes from the cloud, and the advantages of both generations of technology are integrated. Crypto and internet finance are now experiencing the exact same path: the first stage: nobody understood, but the direction was vaguely there; the second stage: everyone was enthusiastic, and the bubble was blown to the sky (we just experienced this); the third stage: the bubble bursts → weeding out the false and retaining the true → spiraling upward (this is 2025).
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