The US market is usually closed for a short holiday during Thanksgiving . Yesterday (28th), trading was only open for half a day, and Bitcoin moved independently. The price of BTC climbed back to $93,000 late on the 28th, a rebound of more than 10% from the low of $80,000 at the beginning of the month. However, the price then fell back to around $90,175, accompanied by a large number of negative funding rates.
Prices surged, only to be short.
As of the Asian session on the morning of the 29th, Bitcoin had pulled back to around $90,840, with significant volatility remaining. According to Coinglass data, funding rates on Binance and OKX futures markets are generally below the benchmark of 0.01%, with some even falling to -0.005%. Negative values indicate that short sellers must pay fees to long sellers, showing that short selling pressure far outweighs long demand.
The compression spring after lever removal
In just one month, Bitcoin futures open interest shrank by about 20% in BTC terms, indicating that a significant portion of speculative positions have been liquidated. New short positions are now mostly concentrated between $90,000 and $93,000. If the price breaks through $93,000, these high-density short positions will face forced covering.
If a buy-back rally begins, the price will initially target $98,000, and could even reach the key price level of $100,000. Futures positions are biased towards short positions, so what's driving the price increase? On-chain data shows that wallets holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins have been net buyers over the past two weeks. These mid-sized holders are considered "smart money," often adding to their positions against the trend during periods of extreme sentiment.
Meanwhile, CoinShares' November fund flow report pointed out that although ETFs experienced net redemptions, these were profit-taking rather than long-term withdrawals.
Short-term pain or long-term squeeze? Let's look at $93,000-$94,000.
Supported by spot demand, coupled with negative funding rates squeezing short sellers, this creates a textbook "bear trap." For traders, the risks of short based on futures sentiment are amplified; for long-term investors, the key focus is whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $93,000 in the next two weeks. If the price stabilizes, sellers currently paying interest to maintain their short positions could very well become the fuel for a renewed push towards $100,000.
