The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is currently at 86.4%, remaining at a high level.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, as of November 30th, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 86.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 13.6%. The probability of a rate cut has remained high since the unexpected drop in initial jobless claims on November 26th. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged until January 2026 is 10%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 67%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 23%. The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for December 10th and January 28th, 2026.