After experiencing its biggest pullback since April, US stocks rebounded and stabilized last week, and this week marks the start of the final month of the year. Crypto market sentiment has improved slightly from its previous extreme panic, with cautious optimism emerging. As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) remained above 90,000, having rebounded significantly from its November low of 80,600, but still showing a cumulative monthly decline of 17%. On average, both US stocks and Bitcoin experience a decent Christmas rally in December. Statistics show that Bitcoin's average gain in the fourth quarter is 77%, but this year Bitcoin declined in October and November. Is there a chance for it to catch up?
Key data is being released one after another, influencing the direction of the December interest rate decision.
Several important data releases will be announced this week, including the ISM Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the ADP employment report, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
Inflation and consumer demand data are being closely watched, as they are likely to influence market expectations regarding whether the Federal Reserve will continue its rate-cutting cycle. Furthermore, the market is also closely monitoring potential changes in central bank leadership, and is prepared for the appointment of a new Fed chairman, with White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett currently considered the frontrunner.
The Federal Reserve has entered its pre-meeting blackout period, but Chairman Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman will still speak, though they are prohibited from commenting on the economic outlook or policy. The Fed will hold a two-day meeting on December 9th, with discussions expected to focus on labor market conditions and whether a third consecutive interest rate cut is necessary. According to the CME Group FedWatch Index, 87% of traders currently believe the Fed will cut rates by another 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark interest rate to 3.5-3.75%.
Crypto sentiment has slightly improved; is there a chance for Bitcoin to see a Christmas rally?
Crypto market sentiment has improved slightly, shifting from extreme panic to a state of fear, with cautious optimism beginning to emerge.
However, Bitcoin's weak performance relative to tech stocks and criticism of Tether's Bitcoin-backed reserves continue to exert pressure. Bitcoin's dominance remains at 58.7%, failing to lead an overall surge in the crypto market capitalization.
As of press time, Bitcoin remained above 90,000, having rebounded significantly from its November low of 80,600, but still down 17% over the past month. Ethereum, meanwhile, hovered around the 3,000 mark, down 21% over the past month.
On average, both US stocks and Bitcoin saw decent Christmas rallies in December. According to Coinglass , Bitcoin performed best in the fourth quarter, with an average gain of 77%. However, Bitcoin declined in October and November this year. Is there a chance for it to catch up?
This article, "Panic Eases, Bitcoin Holds Above 90,000 Magnesium, Will the Christmas Market See a Catch-Up Rally?", originally appeared on ABMedia .
