Grayscale Research recently stated that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in 2026, while dismissing concerns that the market is entering a multi-year bear cycle. The report, published earlier this week, shows that Grayscale disagrees with the “four-year cycle” argument – the popular view that Bitcoin prices always peak and then fall sharply according to the halving schedule.
According to Grayscale’s team of analysts, the current market landscape is significantly different from previous cycles. While they acknowledge that the market is still full of uncertainties, they believe that the four-year cycle thesis will soon be outdated, and that Bitcoin prices could even peak as early as next year before moving further into 2026.
From early October to late November, the Bitcoin market was volatile, with prices falling more than 32% from their recent peak. However, deep corrections during a bull run are not unusual. Grayscale notes that declines of 25% or more have been common in previous bull markets and do not necessarily signal a long-term reversal. In fact, long-term investors who have held on have often benefited significantly when the market recovered.
What separates the current cycle from the old model is the new cash flow structure. Unlike previous growth phases , which were led by retail investors and operated on spot exchanges, the 2025 market sees institutional Capital playing a leading Vai . This Capital comes from ETFs, companies holding digital assets in digital treasuries, along with the professionalization of institutional investors. This reduces the likelihood of parabolic rises and sharp crashes as recorded in history.
In addition to internal factors, Grayscale also emphasized the macro environment that is supporting risk assets. Many organizations expect the US to lower interest rates next year, and the crypto policy environment is gradually improving as the US Congress pushes forward bipartisan legislation. Under President Donald Trump, regulatory proposals on cryptocurrencies are said to have more opportunities to progress than in the previous period.
Tom Lee, CEO of BitMine – an Ethereum treasury management company – Chia a similar view. He believes that market prices are decoupled from fundamentals. According to Lee, data on wallet users, on-chain activity, network fees, and Tokenize speed are growing steadily, while prices are under constant selling pressure. This makes Bitcoin and Ethereum risk-reward more attractive than most traditional assets.
