$BTC The price has been hovering around 90,000, with the whole world awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision. First, will there be a rate cut? Highly likely. Based on the currently released non-farm payrolls, PCE, and other data, a rate cut is a certainty. Moreover, it's highly probable to be 25 basis points. Not only is there a consensus within the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, but even the next Fed candidate, Hassett, is emphasizing a 25 basis point cut. So, this is essentially a done deal. Second, will there be a surge after the rate cut? To be clear, no. I know many people will say that a rate cut equals a surge, but this time it really won't. On the one hand, the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut has already been priced in, and various funds have already made their buying and selling moves. During this period, BTC rose from 80,000 to 90,000 largely due to speculation surrounding the Fed's rate cut. Therefore, further upward movement will depend on other influencing factors. On the other hand, there have been two interest rate cuts so far in 2025, but neither has triggered a significant market rally. The first was on September 17th, after which BTC fell by nearly 8%. The second was on October 29th, after which BTC fell by nearly 29%. Therefore, market expectations are not focused on the rate cuts themselves or the magnitude of the cuts; the real variable is how Powell views next year's rate cuts. Third, what will happen in 2026? Whether BTC will have a chance to break out of its current trend next year depends on how long this rate-cutting cycle lasts and how many more cuts there will be in 2026… This is also the main area of contention among market participants. So, what is the Fed's internal perspective? Frankly, it's highly divided. Some members believe there shouldn't be any more rate cuts and that the current rate should be maintained, while others believe there should be 4-5 more cuts to bring the rate down to 2.5%. This extreme internal division often leads to intense market speculation. Therefore, tonight's meeting is essentially a revelation of the outcome of this game, with three possibilities: 1. A 25bp rate cut, with no additional information. Since the rate cut expectation has already been priced in, the crypto market will likely follow the US stock market's fluctuations, with minimal volatility. Currently, this is the most likely scenario to align with market expectations. 2. Dovish comments: A 25bp rate cut, with expectations of more than two cuts next year. Once the easing path is confirmed, BTC may rebound along with the US stock market, potentially even returning to the $100,000 level this week. Of course, this is the ideal scenario. 3. Hawkish comments: A 25bp rate cut, but hinting at limited room for further rate cuts next year. If the market picks up on this signal, BTC could potentially return to the $85,000 level in the short term. Therefore, the short-term trend will not be determined by today's rate cut, but by the Fed's view on next year. In short, don't worry. The answer will be given tonight. Let's wait and see. #FederalReserve #Bitcoin #Powell #RateCut #RMP