Gemini officially receives CFTC approval for prediction market, launching derivatives amid deregulation by the Trump administration.

Gemini Titan, a Gemini subsidiary, has received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a Designated Contract Market (DCM). This approval opens the door for US regulators to establish prediction markets, allowing Gemini to fully launch its "binary contract" service, which covers topics such as politics, economics, and sports.

Gemini applied for its first DCM license in March 2020, but has been stagnant for several years. However, with this approval, it is expected to enter the US prediction market market in earnest. Currently, this market is dominated by Kalshi and Polymarket. Notably, usage of these exchanges has increased significantly since President Trump's inauguration last year, and demand for trading focused on political themes continues to grow.

In an official statement, Gemini co-CEO Tyler Winklevoss thanked President Trump and welcomed the end of the Biden administration's "crypto war." He continued, "We now have a president and financial regulators who are friendly to crypto, innovation, and the American economy."

The CFTC is currently under the leadership of Acting Chairwoman Caroline Palm, nominated by President Trump. Chairwoman Palm is adopting a more open regulatory stance than before, paving the way for platform expansion into areas such as prediction markets, sports, and economic forecasting. Tyler Winklevoss emphasized, "Prediction markets have the potential to grow to a scale that surpasses traditional capital markets," and "Unlike in the past, the current CFTC is clearly taking a pro-business, pro-technology regulatory stance."

Gemini Titan plans to expand its offerings to include cryptocurrency-based derivatives such as futures, options, and perpetual contracts. While actively traded in Asian markets, this area has been restricted in the US due to censorship-level regulations.

Meanwhile, a shift is also brewing in Washington. Trump Media & Technology Group announced plans to introduce prediction markets within its social platform, Truth Social, through an exclusive partnership with Crypto.com. The "Truth Predict" feature will allow users to trade prediction contracts on a wide range of topics, including elections, inflation, commodities, and sports.

Crypto.com CEO Chris Marshalek said, “Prediction markets are the next big industry that could grow to trillions of dollars.”

Article Summary by TokenPost.ai

🔎 Market Interpretation

U.S. prediction markets are back on track for growth, fueled by deregulation.

Gemini and other platforms are now expanding their reach beyond politics and economics to encompass sports and cryptocurrencies, creating a new financial ecosystem.

💡 Strategy Points

Gemini's entry into the legalized prediction market highlights its advantage as a "regulation-friendly platform" over competitors like Kalshi and Polymarket.

In the future, introducing cryptocurrency-based derivatives could become a key strategy for increasing exchange profitability and differentiation.

📘 Glossary

DCM (Designated Contract Market)

A legally-funded derivatives-focused exchange operating under the approval of the U.S. CFTC

Prediction Market

A contract market where you bet 'yes' or 'no' on the outcome of future events such as politics, sports, and economics.

binary contracts

A two-way choice for a single outcome, i.e. a contract type where the payout depends on whether a specific event occurs.

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