The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 24.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by March is 8.1%.

According to Mars Finance, on December 14th, based on CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 75.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by March next year is 50.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 8.1%. The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026.