Sei is currently being compressed below the EMA band, but on-chain and Derivative indicators are rising sharply, suggesting accumulation of positions and the potential for an upcoming surge in volatility.
The 4-hour chart shows that Sei remains at the Dip of its range, failing to regain control of the short-term trend. Downward risk remains open towards the weak zone around $0.1216, while DEX and perps activity has surged, creating a positive divergence that often appears before a range-breaking phase.
- Sei is blocked below the EMA band; downside risk toward $0.1216.
- DEX trading volume exceeded $400 million in two weeks despite sideways price movement.
- Perps volume increased by 19,527% over 90 days, often signaling impending volatility.
Sei price is being compressed below the EMA band, with risks heading towards $0.1216.
Sei is trading in the lower half of a wide range on the 4-hour timeframe, below the EMA, with the risk of testing the weak area around $0.1216 if support is breached.
BingX provides a suite of Derivative tools and funding, open interest (OI), and liquidation data to monitor leverage pressure during price consolidation. This perspective supports assessing the probability of losing the $0.1216 support level or the possibility of reclaiming the EMA band to reverse momentum.
On the 4-hour timeframe, Sei has not yet recaptured the short-term trend, reflecting a more hesitant rather than a complete reversal of sentiment. The tight accumulation structure is suppressing volatility, while trading capital shows signs of shifting to other areas of the market.
Source: TradingView
Sei 's DEX surged while prices remained compressed.
Sei 's on-chain activity expanded sharply despite sideways price movement; DEX volume exceeded $400 million in just two weeks, indicating increased users and transaction flows at the Dip of the range.
This divergence is important: strong on-chain interaction during price stagnation is often a prelude to volatility, not distribution, especially near long-term support zones of the range.
The expanding on-chain footprint reinforces the "spring compression" argument, especially as the price remains constrained by the EMA. If buying pressure persists, the breakout from the compression usually occurs with a bounce through the initial supply zone.
Source: defillama
Derivative positions have risen sharply beneath the surface.
Sei 's perp volume increased by 19,527% in 90 days, reflecting aggressive betting even though the spot price was blocked below the EMA band.
Source: X
Perps accumulation indicates that traders prioritize exposure to the future rather than reacting to current weakness. History shows that bursts of perps during consolidation phases often precede trend breakouts, not prolonged drifts.
The surge in Derivative signals the market's sensitivity to technical signals: a single close above the EMA band can trigger a two-way price movement in leveraged positions.
Sei is building pressure for a breakout.
Losing $0.1216 would open up the risk of a “weak low”, while reclaiming the EMA band could reverse momentum; the supply zone of $0.18–0.20 would return to focus if the breakout is successful.
A clear breakout from the current range would bring $0.18–$0.20 into focus. A decisive break above $0.20 could open the door for a larger upward move, with sufficient momentum to potentially head towards the $1.50 region.
Sei is forming a price base-like structure for Binance Coin ahead of its 2024 expansion, reinforcing the “base-break-mark-up” scenario if confirmed by volume and closing above the EMA band.
Source: X
In short, the conclusion
The downside risk remains below $0.1216; recapturing the EMA band would trigger the supply zone target of $0.18–$0.20 and shape the next direction.
- The downside risk is clearly identified below $0.1216 when the price is still in the Dip area.
- Reclaiming the sustained EMA band paves the way to the supply zone of $0.18–0.20.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where is the crucial support for Sei currently located?
The $0.1216 level is XEM a "weak low". If breached, the downside risk will expand as the price remains in the lower half of the range and below the EMA.
What signals confirm a shift to an upward trend for Sei?
A convincing recapture of the EMA band, followed by a decisive break of the $0.20 zone. At that point, the supply zone of $0.18–$0.20 is absorbed, opening up room for further upside if volume and momentum support it.
What does it mean when DEX and perps rise while the price moves sideways?
This is a positive divergence: users and leveraged positions are accumulating at lows, often signaling preparation for a period of sharp volatility rather than a prolonged distribution.
