BTC: Summary of discussions in Orange's muted group (daily market analysis) (11:00:06 ~ 12:00:06)

1. Current Recommended Direction - The crypto market is under short-term pressure due to weaker-than-expected earnings from US tech stocks and a pullback in the Nasdaq, with BTC showing a short-term bearish bias. - Tonight's US non-farm payroll data and expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike are key risk factors, potentially causing significant market volatility. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines and avoid chasing highs. - MicroStrategy's large purchase of 10,645 BTC indicates continued institutional buying at the bottom, making it suitable for tentative position building, awaiting confirmation of support. - Be aware that a strengthening yen could lead to the unwinding of carry trades, potentially causing liquidity drain. Short-term caution is advised against overextending positions during a pullback. 2. Position Sizing and Risk Management Recommendations - It is recommended to use a small position size for initial BTC trades, strictly controlling position size and avoiding heavy positions chasing rallies. - It is recommended to reduce positions before and after the release of the Non-Farm Payroll data, setting clear stop-loss orders to protect against sudden negative shocks. - If the Non-Farm Payroll data is weak and the Japanese yen interest rate hike has occurred, this is considered a medium-term buying opportunity, and positions can be gradually added. - Stop-loss levels are recommended to refer to short-term support areas, while take-profit levels should focus on previous high resistance levels, maintaining flexibility in adjustments. 3. Suitable Trading Style - The strategy leans towards a stable medium-term approach and exploratory position building; aggressive short-term chasing of rallies and sell-offs is not recommended. - Focus on the two major catalysts tonight: the Non-Farm Payroll data and the Bank of Japan interest rate hike. Enter and exit positions quickly, avoiding overstaying your welcome. - Increased market volatility is suitable for patient trend investors; blindly following the crowd is not advisable, and maintaining capital flexibility is crucial.