Cantor Fitzgerald projects that Hyperliquid (HYPE) could surge in the next few years thanks to growth in DEX fees and the mechanism of using fees to redeem Token, even though the price is weakening around $27 and is expected to fall by more than 50% by 2025.
The report anticipates steady growth in Hyperliquid DEX volume , laying the groundwork for long-term fees and valuation based on annual fee multiples. However, competition from new platforms and the risk of liquidation around the $25 mark remain factors investors need to closely monitor.
- Cantor Fitzgerald predicts that Hyperliquid fees could accumulate significantly over 10 years, supporting HYPE's valuation thanks to its buyback mechanism.
- Competition from Lighter, Aster, and other rivals reduced market share in the short term, but Cantor believes the long-term impact will not be too significant.
- The $25 mark is a short-term sensitive area due to liquidation risk, while “ liquidation pockets” are located at $25.8 and $30.4–$31.5.
Cantor Fitzgerald predicts HYPE could benefit greatly from fee growth and buybacks.
Cantor Fitzgerald estimates that Hyperliquid DEX's Volume could grow steadily, generating a long-term fee stream and supporting HYPE's valuation because a large portion of the fees are used to buy back Token.
According to the latest report by Cantor Fitzgerald, Chia via this link , Hyperliquid DEX Volume could grow at a rate of 15% per year, generating approximately $20 billion in fees over the next 10 years.
Cantor also argued that since the majority of fees are used for the Token buyback program, HYPE could be valued at multiples of 22.9x–50x of the annualized fees. Based on this assumption, they proposed a price target range of $121 to over $200 per Token.
Although the "pricing based on fees" problem heavily depends on volume growth, actual fees collected, and the sustainability of demand for Derivative trading, the core logic is: if the buyback mechanism continues to absorb supply over time, the market may price HYPE as an asset tied to fee revenue streams.
In the context of monitoring price volatility, liquidation , and Derivative risks such as funding or liquidation, traders can also refer to BingX 's tools and market insights to assess price sensitivity around key support/resistance zones.
Competition from Lighter and Aster has reduced Hyperliquid's market share.
Lighter, Aster, and new competitors have caused Hyperliquid's market share to plummet from its previous dominant period, even though the platform is still considered to offer a near-CEX experience.
The original content stated that Hyperliquid DEX had evolved into a prominent perpetual contract platform with many "centralized exchange-level" features. However, the emergence of Lighter, Aster (backed by Binance Labs ), and other projects has dragged its market share down to 17%.
This 17% figure represents a decrease from 60% market share in May, reflecting a sharp decline in dominance. Market share data is referenced from Dune .
Cantor argues that current competition concerns are exaggerated.
Cantor acknowledged that competition could have a short-term psychological impact, but assessed the long-term risk from competitors as not too serious due to the time-sensitive nature of their "point-hunting" behavior.
"We believe that fears about the current competitive landscape are being exaggerated, due to 'point-hunting tourists,' or people jumping from one platform to another to earn points."
– Cantor Fitzgerald, quoted in the article.
The report also suggests that crypto Treasury focused on HYPE, led by Hyperliquid Strategies and Hyperion DeFi, could help boost adoption and activity on the platform over time.
Catalyst price surge: potential launch of HYPE spot crypto ETF in the US and Token burning plans.
The potential emergence of hype in crypto ETF spots and the proposed Token burning from the buyback program are XEM as two drivers that could improve sentiment in the medium term, although pressure from periodic unlocks remains.
The original text refers to the "possible" launch of a Crypto ETF spot HYPE in the US as a positive factor in the medium term. If it happens, this could help reverse the 54% loss in 2025 and support sentiment, even if the market still needs to absorb monthly Token Lockup unlocks.
Additionally, the Hyperliquid Foundation proposed burning 37 million Token from its buyback program. The original text stated that this move could eliminate approximately 13% of the supply, creating a deflationary effect and potentially supporting HYPE's valuation if demand remains constant or increases.
The $25 mark is a key area due to liquidation risk and liquidation clusters.
When prices fluctuate weakly, the $25 level becomes a risk zone because large Longing positions could be liquidated if the price wicks below this level.
The original text noted that HYPE's short-term price movements are "quiet" and concerning, although catalysts might make the current price range look like a "discount" for accumulation. However, a whale with a $60 million Longing position risks liquidation if the price sweeps below $25.
On the 1-week liquidation heat map, key “ liquidation pockets” are highlighted at $25.8 at the bottom and $30.4 and $31.5 at the top. This implies that during a volatile week, the price may touch these levels as the market searches for liquidation points.
The short-term outlook remains around the $25–$30 range.
Considering all factors, Cantor leans toward a positive long-term outlook, but short-term volatility remains concentrated in the $25–$30 range and is sensitive to competition and liquidation.
The conclusion of the original text emphasizes two points: (1) Cantor XEM the current fear of competition as “excessive” and still expects Hyperliquid to maintain long-term strength in the perps market; (2) in the short term, HYPE prices may fluctuate within the 25–30 USD range, reflecting the tug-of-war between medium-term catalysts and technical risks around liquidation clusters.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors did Cantor Fitzgerald base his HYPE price forecast on?
Cantor bases its valuation on Hyperliquid DEX's Volume growth, the total fees expected to be generated in the long term, and the fact that a large portion of those fees will be used to buy back Token, thereby deducing the annual fee-based valuation multiple.
Why has Hyperliquid's market share dropped to 17%?
The original content stated that new competitors like Lighter and Aster (backed by Binance Labs ) have attracted users, causing Hyperliquid's market share to plummet from 60% in May.
What impact does crypto ETF spot HYPE have on price?
If launched in the US as outlined, the Crypto ETF spot HYPE could improve medium-term sentiment, support Capital inflows, and help offset the 54% decline in 2025, although still affected by unlocks.
What does the proposal to burn 37 million Token mean?
This proposal aims to burn Token from the buyback program and, according to the original text, could eliminate approximately 13% of the supply, is deflationary, and could support pricing if demand does not decline.
Why is the $25 mark considered important?
The $25 mark is important because of the risk of liquidation: a "whale" wallet with a large Longing position could be liquidated if the price sweeps below $25, causing a sharp increase in volatility.
