According to Followin, U.S. November CPI data will be released later today. Due to the recent government shutdown and holiday effects, the data collection window was significantly shortened and highly concentrated, limiting its ability to fully reflect underlying inflation trends. Markets expect headline CPI around 3.1% YoY and core CPI near 3.0%, but multiple institutions warn that data reliability is compromised. At the same time, tariff-related factors continue to pose upside risks to goods prices, calling for cautious interpretation.
Later tonight, the Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps to 3.75%. Rapid disinflation, along with weakening economic and labor conditions, has increased the likelihood of Governor Bailey adopting a more dovish stance. While the probability of a cut is priced above 90%, markets broadly believe the UK’s easing cycle is nearing its end, with limited room for further policy moves.
In contrast, the European Central Bank is expected to remain on hold. Eurozone data has surprised to the upside, with inflation stabilizing near target. Market focus is shifting from “whether to cut” toward “whether the easing phase is ending,” with some even beginning to discuss medium-term rate-hike potential—though the bar for near-term action remains high.
Bitunix Analyst View:
With distorted U.S. data, the UK entering a rate-cut phase, and Europe leaning neutral-to-hawkish, global monetary policy divergence is becoming more pronounced. For crypto markets, short-term volatility will be driven more by macro expectation gaps and liquidity pricing than by any single data point. Close attention should be paid to USD trends and shifts in risk-asset sentiment.
