The macro backdrop is broadly neutral: the DXY supports risk appetite despite a small uptick in MOVE, and the 2s10s curve remains in place with stable real yields.
However, equities are showing a local risk-off signal (SPX -0.98%), so the regime stays BALANCED with moderate risk (5/10) and no clear trend edge.
If you want to understand these regimes, start here: https://substack.com/@adlerscryptoinsights/note/c-183460426?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=46gt68…

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In the crypto world, what truly determines victory is never code, but the interplay between liquidity, power, and regulation. The rise and fall of BUSD is not merely a tragic tale of a stablecoin, but a financial war waged by exchanges attempting to "unify the world."

When BUSD was thrust onto the historical stage, it carried not only a compliance narrative, but also Binance's ambition to reshape the stablecoin order through coercive measures—by manipulating exchange rates and merging trading pairs, directly swallowing competitors' liquidity into its own ledger.

The "automatic conversion" of 2022 was a textbook example of a blitzkrieg; and 2023...

The Rise and Fall of Binance's Dominance: From BUSD's "Unification" to $U's "Conquering the World"—The Stablecoin Wars

Source: Galaxy Research; Translation: Jinse Finance xz
Bitcoin's closing price in 2025 is expected to be roughly the same as the level at the beginning of the year.
The cryptocurrency market experienced a genuine bullish wave in the first ten months of this year. Regulatory reforms continued to advance, ETFs continued to attract funds, and on-chain activity became increasingly active. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6th.
However, the market failed to deliver the expected breakthrough after the initial frenzy; instead, it experienced rotation, repricing, and rebalancing. This was driven by factors such as unmet macroeconomic expectations, a shift in investment narratives, leveraged margin calls, and massive...

Galaxy: 26 Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2026

This article is from Kyle Crypto Hunt.
Compiled by Odaily Odaily(@OdailyChina); Translated by Azuma (@azuma_eth)
Editor's Note: Arthur Hayes, the legendary market predictor, co-founder of BitMEX, is at it again, offering his predictions. In today's episode of the Kyle Crypto Hunt podcast, Hayes discusses macroeconomic liquidity changes, market trends, his personal positions, and trading strategies...