Towards the end of next year, we will have midterm elections. It is very likely (imo 90%) that Dems will win the House. Historically, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, the SP500 returns only 3.2% on average (compared to the 8.4% average, and 14.5% in the 12 months post midterm).

Reasoning for assigning 90% odds of winning to Democrats: - Democrats only need to gain 5 seats to win the House. - Historically (since WW2) the sitting party has lost an average of 25 seats during midterm elections. - Since 1982, sitting party has always lost the House, only exception being 2002 in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. - Trump's current approval ratings are ~36%, among the lowest ever recorded after the first year of presidency. - Biggest issues right now are regarding the economy, mostly inflation and unemployment. CPI YoY has remained in the high 2% area throughout this year. Unemployment rate is up from 4.0% to 4.6% YTD. Normal people see life becoming harder while Trump is handing out tax cuts to businesses and juicing the stock market, making the rich richer. - Very likely that Trump will hand out a 'Trump dividend' around summer, but don't believe this will be enough to make a real difference.

midterms years have historically been volatile. dont think trump will stop being erratic