After Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of over $126,000 in October, market momentum gradually cooled, and the price subsequently underwent a significant pullback. Following several weeks of corrective movement, Bitcoin is currently consolidating in the $85,000 to $90,000 range, but overall market sentiment remains conservative, with investors clearly divided on the future direction.
However, cryptocurrency media outlet Decrypt recently compiled the views of several analysts, pointing out that although short-term volatility is still possible, based on historical data and fundamental conditions, the possibility of a new bull market for Bitcoin in 2026 cannot be ruled out.
RSI has entered the oversold zone; historical experience suggests a bullish bias.
Analysts pointed out that during this pullback, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) once fell below 30, entering the traditionally defined "oversold" zone. Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, said that similar situations have occurred five times since 2023, and each time, the price of Bitcoin eventually rebounded.
Bittel believes that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could potentially challenge $170,000 within the next three months. He also points out that this judgment is predicated on the market no longer entirely following the past "four-year halving cycle" logic.
However, not all analysts are highly optimistic about price projections. Bitunix analyst Dean Chen pointed out that when the RSI enters oversold territory, it usually indicates panic selling and deleveraging in the market, and prices are indeed likely to stabilize and rebound afterward. However, this does not mean that the same upward path will necessarily be replicated in the past.
Chen emphasized that for Bitcoin to continue its significant upward trend, it is still necessary to observe overall macro liquidity, the direction of monetary policy, and changes in global market risk appetite. A single technical indicator is not sufficient to form a basis for prediction.
Institutional funds become a medium- to long-term support
In addition, fundamental factors are also seen as a potential supporting force. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, pointed out that the recent market weakness is mainly due to short-term factors, including investors selling in advance in response to cyclical expectations and the aftermath of previous leveraged liquidations. He believes that these pressures will eventually subside.
More importantly, the pace of institutional investment is accelerating. Hougan described the development of Bitcoin spot ETFs as "extremely bullish," with large financial institutions and brokerage firms already able to directly allocate related products, which could make 2026 a pivotal year for capital inflows into the crypto market.
Short-term fluctuations are inevitable; the long-term structure is still evolving.
Overall, Bitcoin has entered a period of consolidation after reaching a new all-time high, and may still face volatility and repeated tests in the short term. However, whether looking at historical cycles, technical indicators, or institutional adoption and ETF development, there are no clear signals of a structural shift to a bearish market.
Analysts generally believe that rather than expecting a rapid replication of past price surges, investors should focus more on whether Bitcoin is gradually moving towards a mature stage driven by its own fundamentals and with gradually decreasing volatility. Whether 2026 will be the next key turning point remains to be seen and will require further market validation.
