Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting a rebound from the $84,000 (approximately KRW 124.37 million) support level, but the recovery is stalling due to strong selling pressure at key resistance levels. Most major altcoins are also attempting to rebound after their declines, but their recovery momentum is limited. Meanwhile, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is showing relatively strong performance and attracting attention in the short term.
Bitcoin price remains mixed despite BOJ rate hike; Hayes predicts dollar and BTC strength
Last Friday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%. While interest rate hikes typically have a negative impact on risky assets, the price of Bitcoin actually surpassed $89,000 (approximately 131.73 million won) immediately after the announcement. The market interpreted this as a signal that real interest rates (nominal interest rates minus inflation) remain low.
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, has made a strong prediction via X (formerly Twitter) that the dollar/yen exchange rate could reach 200 and BTC could reach "Milli" (USD 1 million), saying, "Don't fight the BOJ." While long-term Bitcoin bullishness remains dominant, short-term trends are dominated by uncertainty.
BTC and ETH test key support levelsโฆ What does technical resistance mean?
Bitcoin is currently experiencing buying pressure to defend the $84,000 (approximately KRW 124.37 million) level, but repeated selling pressure is detected near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $89,369 (approximately KRW 132.3 million). If this resistance level strengthens, the price could fall to the $80,600 (approximately KRW 127.17 million) level.
Conversely, if it surpasses $94,589 (approximately 139.99 million won), it could be interpreted as a signal of a short-term trend reversal, and there is room for further increases to $100,000 (approximately 148.1 million won) and $107,500 (approximately 159.11 million won).
Ethereum (ETH) is also seeing buying pressure around the $2,700 (approximately KRW 3.99 million) level. However, resistance is expected at the $3,161 (approximately KRW 4.68 million) and $3,450 (approximately KRW 5.11 million) levels, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is located. If ETH fails to break above these levels and corrects, there is a risk of a further decline to $2,250 (approximately KRW 3.33 million).
Most altcoins are underperforming, but Bitcoin Cash is the only one showing a bullish trend.
BNB's upward attempt was blocked by the moving average, raising concerns about a possible downside test of $790 (approximately KRW 1.16 million). Solana (SOL), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Chainlink (LINK), and Ada (ADA) are attempting to rebound from key support levels, but are not showing a strong recovery.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) successfully defended its 50-day SMA (Short-term Average) support level of $535 (approximately 790,000 won). Analysts suggest that a break above the $615 resistance level could lead to further increases to $720 (approximately 1.06 million won). Failure to break above this level suggests a likely sideways movement within the $443 (approximately 650,000 won) to $615 range for the time being.
Outlook and Interpretation: Will 2026 Be a Turning Point?
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Global Head of Macro Research, predicted that BTC will peak at $125,000 (approximately KRW 1.85 billion) this cycle and enter a "year-long correction period" in 2026. He predicted that the $65,000 (approximately KRW 962.65 million) to $75,000 (approximately KRW 1.11 billion) level could be a key support level.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said, "While the AI bubble could impact Bitcoin volatility, we won't see another 80% plunge like we saw in 2022 or 2018." This suggests that cryptocurrencies are closely linked to traditional financial markets and technology stocks.
๐ Market Interpretation
Bitcoin continued its upward trend despite the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, but it is now showing mixed performance, encountering selling pressure near the $89,000 turning point. Some experts advise maintaining long-term strength, but caution is needed regarding external shocks such as the AI bubble.
๐ก Strategy Points
In the short term, the $84,000 support level is crucial, and whether it breaks through could determine future trends. Bitcoin Cash has secured strong technical support, and a break above this resistance level presents the potential for further upside.
๐ Glossary
- Real interest rate: This is the interest rate level that takes inflation into account. The lower the real interest rate, the more it stimulates investment liquidity.
- EMA/SMA: A moving average indicator that determines trend direction based on the average price over a certain period.
- Box: This refers to a market trend that moves sideways within a certain price range.
๐ก Want to know more? AI-prepared questions for you:
A. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike weakens the yen and affects global liquidity flows. Since Bitcoin is closely linked to global capital flows, Japan's monetary policy can also influence its price.
A. Bitcoin's mining rewards are halved approximately every four years, and each of these periods has historically resulted in significant bull markets. This cycle has followed a similar pattern, but experts believe it has peaked.
A. Support lines are areas where buying sentiment gathers during a decline, while resistance lines are areas where selling sentiment gathers during a rise. Moving averages are a tool that smoothly visualizes these trend lines and serve as a benchmark for understanding short- and medium-term market trends.
A. Bitcoin Cash maintains technical stability, with repeated buying pressure at key moving averages. In contrast, other coins are showing relatively sluggish performance, either by losing support or by experiencing strong selling pressure during rebounds.
A. Bitcoin has recently shown a close relationship with technology stocks, increasing the likelihood that it will be linked to AI-related stock market fluctuations. Therefore, concerns are rising that if the AI bubble bursts, BTC could also experience a corresponding correction.
TP AI Precautions
This article was summarized using a TokenPost.ai-based language model. Key points in the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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