Bitcoin remains above $85,000 despite increased selling pressure and "surrender" signals on the chain , while nearly 50% of the realized cap is driven by new whales, suggesting that supply is shifting to stronger investors.
The market is testing investors' patience as macroeconomic risks increase and risk-off sentiment spreads. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin's on-chain data has yet to recover to Q2 levels, raising questions about whether the "buy the fear" trend is forming a Dip .
- on-chain signals lean towards pressure and potential capitalization, but the price of BTC remains above $85,000.
- Miner Reserves lost 900 BTC in 2 days, equivalent to $76 million, indicating selling pressure from Miners.
- Nearly 50% of the realized cap comes from new whales, implying that supply is shifting back to the stronger holding group.
Bitcoin's on-chain signals still lean towards "capitulation".
on-chain indicators suggest that tension persists: STH NUPL has not recovered and Miners are showing signs of selling, even though BTC is still holding a key price range.
The market is at a point where HODLers must choose: continue holding positions expecting an increase or reduce risk in the face of a potential deeper correction that narrows the P/L ratio. Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding Japanese bond yields reinforces a defensive ("risk-off") sentiment, leading to more cautious inflows into risky assets.
In this context, Bitcoin has not recorded an on-chain rebound like in Q2. Back then, BTC's STH NUPL bounced back after two months of FUD, but currently, this indicator remains in negative territory, reflecting that short-term holders are still under psychological pressure and maintaining a cautious stance.
Notably, this latest wave of FUD ( fear, uncertainty, and doubt) seems to be more deeply embedded in the network. According to the described events, Miner Reserves decreased by 900 BTC in two days, equivalent to $76 million in selling pressure. Compared to the Average Mining Cost , this indicates that some Miners are operating below break- Capital, increasing the likelihood of selling to cover costs.
Bitcoin held above $85,000 despite increased selling pressure.
The fact that BTC is maintaining above $85,000 while stress levels remain high suggests there is underlying support absorbing supply, consistent with the emerging "buy the fear" scenario.
Despite on-chain signals leaning toward “capitulation,” BTC has held above $85,000. This persistence typically suggests one of two possibilities: (1) selling pressure is being absorbed by buyers with longer “horizons” or (2) the market is balancing in an accumulation zone before choosing a new direction.
Price movements show that BTC has closed the weekly candle four times in a sideways trend within a defined range, chopping above $85,000. If this pattern continues, the probability of a technical Dip forming will increase as the weakening supply is gradually transferred and volatility is "compressed" within the support zone.
New whales have contributed nearly 50% of Bitcoin's realized cap.
When nearly 50% of the realized cap comes from new whales, it implies that a large portion of the supply has shifted to recent buyers, often XEM as "strong players" capable of holding for longer.
In the current macroeconomic setting, the role of whales is becoming increasingly clear. Tensions in Japan are highlighted after the BOJ raised interest rates by 25 bps, the highest level in 30 years, as described in the link stress is building in Japan . The changing interest rate environment could reduce global risk appetite in the short term.
As a result, spot demand for Bitcoin has been "stagnated," with US investors being described as largely observing from the sidelines. When money flows are hesitant, volatility often creates conditions for a "shake-out" process that eliminates weaker players.
The key point is that nearly 50% of Bitcoin's realized cap now comes from new whale buyers. Realized cap reflects the most recent price point at which the coin moved on-chain; therefore, the large proportion from new whale purchases suggests that many coins have been repositioned in recent price ranges and shifted to a more financially strong holding group. Technically, this helps explain why BTC remains firm above $85,000 despite rising FUD .
Conclude
on-chain signals of tension remain, particularly with STH NUPL still in negative territory and Miners reporting a decrease in reserves, but BTC is still holding above $85,000, reflecting significant support.
The fact that nearly 50% of the realized cap was driven by whales shows a shift in supply from "weak hands" to "strong hands," thereby reinforcing the hypothesis that BTC is building a base and the possibility of a Dip formation becomes more likely if the sideways structure above $85,000 continues.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Bitcoin's STH NUPL tell us?
When BTC's STH NUPL is in negative territory, it typically reflects short-term holders experiencing unrealized losses, a vulnerability to FUD ( fear, uncertainty, and doubt), and a risk-off sentiment.
Why is it important for Miner Reserves to decrease?
Miner Reserves decreased by 900 BTC in 2 days (approximately $76 million), implying that Miners have been selling. If this selling occurs when Medium mining costs are high, supply pressure could increase as Miners need cash flow to operate.
What is a realized cap and why is this newly dominant whale species so noteworthy?
Realized cap measures the network's value based on the price at the time the coin last moved. When nearly 50% of the realized cap comes from new whales, it indicates that supply is being reallocated to recent buyers, potentially providing support for the price.
Why is BTC still holding above $85,000 despite market fear?
Holding above $85,000 during periods of increased stress typically indicates buying pressure absorbing supply in this area. If sideways movement within the range continues for several weeks, the market may be building a base before establishing a trend.
