According to ChainCatcher, Jocy, founding partner of IOSG, posted on social media, "2025 was the darkest year for the crypto market, but also the dawn of the institutional era. This was a fundamental shift in market structure, yet most people were still viewing the new era with the logic of the old cycles. A review of the 2025 crypto market reveals a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation. Core data shows that institutions hold 24% of the market, while retail investors exited by 66%, marking a complete turnover in the crypto market. Although BTC fell by 5.4% in 2025, it reached an all-time high of $126,080. Market dominance has shifted from retail to institutions. Institutions are continuously building positions at 'high levels' because they are not looking at price, but at the cycle. Retail investors are selling, and institutions are buying. The current situation is not the 'top of the bull market,' but rather the 'institutional accumulation period.'"
The midterm elections will be held in November 2026. Historically, policies tend to precede decisions in election years. Therefore, the investment logic should be: the first half of 2026 will be a policy honeymoon period, with institutional allocations favoring the market; the second half of 2026 will see increased political uncertainty and volatility. However, risks remain, including Federal Reserve policy, a strong dollar, potential delays in market structure legislation, continued selling of LTH bonds, and uncertainty surrounding the midterm election results. But on the other hand, risks present opportunities; when everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position oneself.
Short term (3-6 months): Trading range of $87,000-$95,000, with institutions continuing to build positions.
Mid-term (First Half of 2026): Driven by both policy and institutional factors, with a target of $120,000-$150,000.
Long term (second half of 2026): Increased volatility, depending on election results and policy continuity.
This is not the top of a cycle, but the beginning of a new one. 2025 marks an acceleration in the institutionalization of the crypto market. Despite a negative annual return for BTC, ETF investors demonstrated strong HODL resilience. While 2025 appears to be the worst year for crypto, it actually saw: the largest supply turnover, the strongest institutional allocation intentions, the clearest policy support, and the most extensive infrastructure improvements. Although prices fell by 5%, ETFs saw $25 billion in inflows, indicating optimism for the first half of 2026. Key points to watch in 2026 include: progress on market structure legislation, the possibility of expanding the strategic Bitcoin reserve, and policy continuity after the midterm elections. In the long term, the improved ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity lay the foundation for the next surge. When the market structure fundamentally changes, old valuation logic becomes invalid, and new pricing power is rebuilt.
