数据源于 Polymarket ：
美联储明年 1 月维持利率不变的概率为 80%。到明年 3 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 43%，维持利率不变的概率为 54%
不知道图二 CME“美联储观察” 的数据是怎么来的，可能是嘴炮民调，还是 Polymarket 上真金白银的押注更靠谱。
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Data source: Polymarket: The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 80%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by March is 43%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 54%. It's unclear where the CME "FedWatch" data in Figure 2 came from; it might be based on speculative polls, or perhaps real bets on Polymarket are more reliable.

#Polymarket

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