After reviewing the 2026 trend outlook reports from five top institutions—a16z, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock—I extracted two key value points: 1) What's the bubble? Will the AI industry enter a period of accelerated investment? Morgan Stanley presented a startling figure: AI infrastructure capital expenditure is projected at $3 trillion, with less than 20% currently deployed. What does this mean? Large-scale cloud providers like Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are currently spending heavily on building data centers, buying GPUs, and laying power infrastructure—and this is just the beginning. However, JPMorgan Chase offers a sober assessment of the actual benefits of this large-scale AI adoption, believing it will only boost profits for some companies in the short term, helping giants optimize their profitability. The real benefits of a qualitative leap in AI productivity will take many years. In essence, it boils down to one point: 2026 will still be a year of massive AI spending, but it's still just the investment phase, far from the harvest. 2) US stock market concentration dividends and spillover effects from non-US markets—which side are you on? BlackRock has proposed a concept called "Micro is Macro," arguing that AI investments by a few companies already have a macroeconomic impact. Data shows that by 2025 year-to-date, the equal-weighted S&P 500 in the US stock market will only rise by 3%, but the market capitalization-weighted version of the top tech companies will rise by 11%. This 8% difference may be due to the concentration of AI growth. Morgan Stanley is the most aggressive in this regard, setting a target of 7800 points for the S&P 500, representing a 14% increase from current levels, arguing that the profitability of the tech giants will continue to strengthen. However, JPMorgan Chase believes that as the dollar weakens, the AI dividend will spill over into the global supply chain, thus giving emerging markets a 10.9% annualized expected return, higher than the 6.7% for US large-cap stocks. Goldman Sachs also sides with this spillover view, giving emerging markets the same 10.9% expectation, believing that Europe (7.1%) and Japan (8.2%) have potential. Simply put, these are two completely different bets: BlackRock and Morgan Stanley are betting that the AI dividend will continue to be monopolized by US tech giants, while JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs are betting that AI is a global infrastructure upgrade, and the dividends will spread to global non-US markets.