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Haotian | CryptoInsight
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独立研究员| Researcher | 以技术和商业视角解读区块链前沿科技 | ZK、AI Agent、DePIN ,etc | 硬核科普 | Previously：@ambergroup_io | @peckshield | DMs for Collab ｜ 社群只对Substack订阅会员开放
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
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I was initially confused about what the next major uptrend narrative for Crypto would be. But after recently interacting with some teams using the name @binance Alpha to promote their projects to VCs and influencers, I suddenly understood: The apparent evolutionary path: ICO—>DeFi—>NFT—> Metaverse>Inscription—>DeSci—>AI Agent—>Perp Dex The actual closed loop: ICO—>DeFi—>NFT—> Metaverse>Inscription—>DeSci—>AI
Haotian | CryptoInsight
@tmel0211
加密行业已经彻底撕裂成“三国杀”局面，各方都在玩着不同的游戏： ——Crypto原生技术叙事派： 以 @VitalikButerin 为主的开发者群体，依然坚守极致的“去中心化”极客思维，守着ZK、模块化、AI Agent、链抽象、并行EVM等技术叙事，苦行僧般Build，但却陷入了infra技术债和应用落地不及预期的怪圈；
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
09-26
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Many people are undoubtedly disappointed to have missed out on @PlasmaFDN and are eagerly anticipating Tether's other stablecoin chain, @Stable. Of course, there's also confusion about why @Tether_to is pursuing a dual-edged strategy of Plasma and Stable. Will Stable issue a token? What exactly is Tether, the king of stablecoins, up to? Let me share my understanding: Simply put: Tether's dual-edged strategy of Plasma and Stable is effectively a bid to recoup the market dividends it has ceded to Ethereum and Tron over the years, achieving a major business model transformation from a stablecoin issuer to a global payment infrastructure provider. 1) First, let's talk about the issue of reclaiming the pie. USDT currently has a market capitalization of $170 billion, with annual transaction volume exceeding even that of PayPal and Visa combined. Tether, however, only earns 3-4% in Treasury bond interest. While this represents $13 billion in annual profit, it pales in comparison to the value it actually creates. How do you understand this? For example, USDT, a key source of DeFi liquidity, generates annual transaction fees that are effectively paid to the Ethereum network (fluctuating gas fees). This fee cost is borne by users and captured by the Ethereum network, while Tether does not profit from it. If Tether launches its own stablecoin chain, theoretically, this portion of transaction fees could be pocketed. Furthermore, it's well known that Tron has profited immensely from USDT payment demand, with revenue expected to reach nearly $2 billion in 2024 alone. Tether doesn't directly benefit from this revenue. Thus, Tether's direct motivation for combining Plasma and Stablecoin is to reclaim the DeFi ecosystem's revenue, including USDT transaction fees and payment service fees, that have long been controlled by Ethereum and Tron. This severely limits Tether's control over its vast USDT stablecoin economy. With the maturation and deployment of Plasma and Stablecoin infrastructure, it's time to reclaim these long-ceded dividends. 2) So, how should we understand the respective roles of Plasma and Stablecoin? Plasma $XPL is a stablecoin chain backed by Tether's sister company @bitfinex and invested in by @peterthiel. It's marketed as a consumer-focused platform, leveraging Bitcoin's security and censorship resistance. Its key advantage is its ability to challenge PayPal's dominance in the payments industry through TradFi, while also integrating with over 100 DeFi protocols to siphon off native crypto yields. For example, the Plasma One neo-bank product portfolio offers a 10% passive savings return and a 4% cashback debit card. Without regulatory hurdles, it would undoubtedly cause a stir in the traditional payments market, seizing market share from legacy payment systems like PayPal. For another example, Plasma integrates the entire crypto infrastructure through EVM compatibility, aiming to incorporate profitable protocols like @aave and @ethena_labs into its revenue portfolio, thereby solidifying its debit card's interest-earning advantage. Otherwise, how could Plasma One offer a 10% savings return in addition to the 4% yield on government bonds? Furthermore, Plasma introduces dedicated channels, subsidizing user gas fees through paymasters. This shifts the network congestion costs typically associated with navigating the Crypto DeFi ecosystem onto the protocol itself, achieving zero-fee transactions. This is highly attractive to end-users. Stable, a "pure USDT" stablecoin chain planned to be issued by Tether itself, is a B2B payment chain that uses USDT as a gas and settlement layer and is likely to focus on payment and settlement scenarios. Based on this understanding, two questions are answered: 1. Will Stable issue coins? According to a recent interview with Tether CEO @paoloardoino, Stable will maintain minimal complexity and will not add additional token mechanisms. In other words, no new coins will be issued for the time being; $USDT is the coin it already issues. 2. What is the purpose of Stable's existence? It's highly likely to replace Tron's USDT ecosystem, aiming to integrate B2B payment channels. For example, it recently introduced PayPal's PYUSD. It seems Stable intends to serve as a settlement layer between stablecoins, further strengthening USDT's position as the dominant stablecoin. Furthermore, if Stable issues new coins, it will directly impact XPL's ability to capture ecosystem value. Plasma and Stable are fully interoperable, using XPL tokens to incentivize Stable's channel partners, helping various stablecoin issuers better utilize Stable's settlement capabilities. Meanwhile, integrating with Plasma will capture the value siphoned from the entire USDT ecosystem. So, if Plasma realizes its ambition to reshape traditional payment infrastructure like PayPal, and if it achieves its goal of reclaiming the value of Crypto's years of DeFi stablecoin economic vitality, will you still consider the current 12B FDV high? Of course, business ambition and actual implementation are two different things. Native crypto ecosystems like Ethereum and Tron won't sit idly by and watch Plasma take over their market share, as user migration takes time. Traditional payment giants like Paypal and Visa won't surrender easily either. What if regulators determine the 10% reserve for Plasma One is illegal? Clearly, there's still a lot of uncertainty. But one thing is certain: Tether, after years of operating as a stablecoin issuer, is now aiming for the even more ambitious goal of becoming a global payments infrastructure giant. Whether or not this can be achieved isn't important; what matters most is how many opportunities we, along the way, can seize!
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
09-24
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I'd like to ask, what exactly is @HyperliquidX in everyone's minds? If it's a pure Perp Dex application, a 45B FDV is already too high. If it's a new innovative L1, a 15B circulating market capitalization might even be underestimated. Even more confusing, how should Hyperliquid's followers benchmark their expectations? 1) If Hyperliquid is considered a Perp Dex, compared to predecessors like dYdX and GMX, its valuation is already high. However, if it's compared to the valuations of on-chain platforms like Binance and other L1s like Solana and BNBChain, Hyperliquid still has significant room for growth. Objectively speaking, while HL's current market share dominance in Perp Dex will undoubtedly result in a premium valuation, the overall on-chain DEX market is limited in size. Its valuation is already high, comparable to products like @GMX_IO and @dYdX, which are approaching or even exceeding their peaks. However, if it is expected to become a Binance on the chain, a valuation comparable to BNBChain and others would likely only be achieved if it significantly absorbs data and metrics from traditional CEX exchanges. Clearly, the current market pricing is based on a balance between the two, leaning more towards the latter. However, this will lead to a significant misalignment in value, especially for those who are simply following the Perp Dex trend, who are misleading and comparing HL's valuation to others without even understanding the underlying basis. This complete disregard for HL's technical architecture and rich, diverse ecosystem value is absurd. 2) Hyperliquid's HyperBFT consensus, HyperCore and HyperEVM layered design, and redesigned on-chain high-frequency node matching engine—while criticized for centralization—do contain numerous innovative elements. In contrast, some imitators still employ the traditional "off-chain matching + on-chain settlement" technical service framework. Most of them remain within the application scope of the original Perp Dex on L1 and L2, or even simply rebrand old products. Is it too hasty to condemn dYdx, GMX, and others based on this? And how can their valuations be compared to HL? In fact, if we take a more sober look, HL's true moat isn't solely the transaction data itself. HyperCore's high-frequency trading matching engine is one aspect, but the HyperEVM application ecosystem is the real draw. For example: Felix Protocol mints stablecoins based on HYPE collateral, using the interest income from $107M of idle USDC to repurchase HYPE; Liminal Money offers a delta-neutral yield product with a 16% APY; others, such as Kinetiq's staking protocol and Hyperlend's lending ecosystem, have combined at least 40 to 50 ecosystem projects. This deep ecosystem, characterized by atomic-level composability, is the foundation that supports its current valuation, sprinting towards on-chain Binance. These are clearly fundamental conditions that follow-up competitors lack. How can a platform-level valuation be achieved simply by farming transaction volume and relying on an "application" itself? Furthermore, there's a very confusing valuation logic that's completely baffling: Hyperliquid is the number one Perp DEX, aiming to dethrone CEX and become an on-chain Binance, while Aster is the number two Perp DEX, aiming to defend Binance and become a new on-chain Binance created by the Binance family. But Binance is still there, so how can another on-chain Binance just appear out of thin air? My CPU is short-circuiting, can someone explain this?
Haotian | CryptoInsight
@tmel0211
09-20
看到太多人Fomo Perp Dex了，上头清醒之后，来点和市场繁荣盛景有些“违和”的感言，以下仅代表个人理解： 1）这一波Perp Dex的起势就是 @HyperliquidX 的成功范本给带起来，2025年上半年上万亿的总交易量，Hyperliquid就独占7成，手续费+回购的双飞轮驱动下让其成为现象级CEX Killer级产品。 x.com/tmel0211/statu…
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
09-23
Let's discuss the current challenges facing DATs (Digital Asset Treasuries) and their future evolution: First, the challenges: $MSTR was the first to take the plunge, before ETF spot trading became available. MicroStrategy's positive growth enabled it to sustain mNAV increases of 2-3 times or even higher. However, DATs that followed suit, including ETH and SOL, face a completely different environment. Even if mNAV continues to be discounted below 1, many retail investors in the US stock market may not buy in. Because retail investors now have more liquid ETF spot options and aren't trapped by the debt flywheels built by institutions, and because institutions hoarding BTC and ETH haven't yet opened the door to yield-generating opportunities, investing in DATs carries significant risk. The solution is clear: DATs must integrate various interest-generating mechanisms to transform their treasuries from stagnant to viable assets. Relying solely on MSTR's debt leverage strategy may be difficult to implement. It's not @fundstrat's fault for not working hard, but simply because the broader environment has changed dramatically. As for smaller DATs with no yield and no premium, they will either retreat after unsuccessfully following the hype or face a liquidation due to the unknown new Nasdaq regulations. It's a harsh reality. This will be a significant boon for financial products integrating tradfi with crypto infra, as these DAT players must use their accumulated coins to generate interest. Products like @ethena_labs and @FalconStable that can facilitate this kind of matching are sure to become the new favorites of Wall Street institutions. This is why I'm very bullish about some financial product innovations targeting Wall Street: x.com/tmel0211/status/19656413...…
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